Sunday, July 31, 2022

杨浚鑫:楼市疯涨 是福是祸 -- 早报 2022-07-31

杨浚鑫:楼市疯涨 是福是祸
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/forum/views/story20220731-1298184

2022-07-31

阳关道

坐德士听电台在讨论某私人公寓开盘首日卖出超过98%单位的新闻,司机突然伸手把广播给关了,摇头直叹“太疯狂了”。

报道的新楼盘平均尺价2100元,虽是私宅项目,却引发市井小民的强烈反应。德士司机担心,以本地楼市的升温之势,他的孩子再过几年可能就买不起房子了。

组屋转售市场则暗流涌动。一些中介为趁势赚取更多佣金,建议组屋屋主抬高屋价。一个淡滨尼霸级组屋单位,几年前开价70万元都无法脱售,如今却在中介的建议下抬高到90万元。

另一股暗流涉及首次购屋者。我认识两对30多岁的情侣都有意买房,但条件好点的转售组屋都太昂贵,预购组屋又得等四五年。他们不约而同转向剩余组屋。但剩余组屋因等候时间较短,同样竞争激烈,他们申请的大巴窑和芽笼四房式组屋,首次购屋者申购率分别达到8.5和11.7。

人们过去说,申购到黄金地段组屋就像中彩票,但如今能申购到任何新组屋项目,都像是买彩票中了安慰奖。刚达到五年最低居住年限的武吉巴督Skyline I,有四房式单位今年2月卖出72万元。这项目推出时不含津贴售价从30万1000元起跳。这意味着一些屋主有可能在五年内获得超过100%的利润。

2011年全国大选,住屋课题是其中一个烫手山芋。当年轻人感觉买屋很难或很贵时,其他社会问题会接踵而来,如人们延后结婚生子、围绕财富不平等的紧张关系加剧、多代同堂引发家庭矛盾等。这都危及“新加坡携手前进”运动中所谈的社会契约。

但要出手为楼市降温,又似乎没有十全十美的方案。尽管政府去年底调高额外买方印花税,但有财力者仍通过联名屋主“脱钩”等方式走漏洞。连总偿债率顶限都有人在钻空子,通过显示资金或质押资产的方式取得更高房贷。

居者有其屋,是政府的承诺。从组屋的增值中获利,是这个承诺衍生出的副产品,是福是祸还未可知。那天坐同事的顺风车,他提到自己虽然有组屋,但不介意组屋不再升值,只希望孩子未来还买得起房子。

如何确保组屋不是赚钱工具?我想到了黄金地段组屋模式的津贴回收机制。建在黄金地段的组屋获得了额外津贴,以确保屋价可负担得起。因此,屋主出售单位时理应“归还”津贴,而不是从中获利。

但大家都知道,在地价高企的新加坡,即使屋主没有获得额外津贴,所有新组屋已是“打折”出售。那么,是否应考虑在所有新组屋首次转售时,都得把部分收益归还政府?

我清楚这个建议可能引发众怒,且执行不易。我也不鼓励草率实施。然而,黄金地段组屋模式既已试行6%津贴回收率,何不研究全面推广的可行性。黄金地段组屋模式的一些项目之前被批评不够“黄金”,如今反而能用来观察补贴回收机制的效果。

住屋涉及切身利益,很难做到冷静、以大局为重。但如果允许房价无止境攀升,下一代人的生活空间和选择会被不断压缩。就这个课题展开对话刻不容缓,以了解人们愿意为一个更可持续的楼市做出什么样的权衡和牺牲,并让所有人对公共住屋所应发挥的作用,重新凝聚共识。

(作者是《联合早报》高级记者)

邻里的天价隐忧 -- 联合早报 2022-07-31

邻里的天价隐忧

https://www.zaobao.com.sg/finance/singapore/story20220731-1298205

许丽卿
2202-07-31

如果任由组屋转售价攀升,会不会成为未来组屋的“参考价”而水涨船高,进而带动周边与其他类型组屋价居高不下?

到时转售组屋还会是人们心目中“负担得起”的公共住屋吗?

宏茂桥新私宅AMO Residence尺价卖到2000元以上,仍吸引大批人排队抢购。

女皇镇杜生阁(SkyTerrace@Dawson)一个五房式高楼层组屋单位则以141.8万元天价转售,令人咋舌。

两个分别位于义顺和淡滨尼的邻里咖啡店各以超过4000万元的天价易手,引发全城热议。

朋友笑称,天价“入侵”邻里房地产的浪潮已到来,接下来这些“天价”势必成了区内甚至全国同类房地产定价的基准,价格恐怕还会再创新高,随之而来的是令人担忧的涨价潮连锁效应。

这使我想起诺贝尔经济奖得主丹尼尔·卡尼曼(Daniel Kahneman)提出的“锚定效应”(anchoring effect)。所谓锚定效应,是指人们在做出判断时容易受第一个印象或第一个信息的支配、作为参照。

“锚定效应”影响深远
懂得市场学的人都知道什么叫“锚定效应”。现实生活中,募捐的人都知道,第一个捐款者要设下高标准,如果第一个捐1000元,接下来大家通常就会捐500元、1000元。如果捐款单上一开始就填写捐款200元,那么接下来大家多数只捐100元、200元。

同样的,只要郊区私宅有个单位以超过2000元尺价成交,这个天价交易势必会影响周围,甚至其他郊区的房价。150万元的天价组屋、4000万元的天价咖啡店,效应都一样。虽然大家都知道只是一两个交易,但一经媒体报道,心理层面所受到的影响却是深远而迅速的。

锚一抛出后,水面马上泛起阵阵涟漪。房地产业主自然会拿自己的房子作比较,无形中拉高心目中的期望。

现有屋主或许会想,如果35楼高的组屋单位,可以近150万元售出,那我这个38楼的单位岂不是可以卖到160万元?

现有屋主或许也会想,如果五房式组屋单位可以卖到150万元,我的四房式组屋或许可以卖到120万元了?

别小看百万元转售组屋在市场激起的涟漪。10年来,本地百万元转售组屋的量价迅速上升,去年就有259个单位成交,最高交易价139万元。今年首六个月,已有166个组屋以逾百万元转售,包括上述直逼142万元转售价的杜生阁单位。

宏茂桥属于郊区住宅区,新私宅尺价超过2000元,算不算贵?这问题已不重要,关键是有人愿意买,而且是排队抢着买,买家的疯狂让发展商赚得更加理直气壮。

这个项目势必成为其他发展商的一个“指标盘”,接下来郊区私宅的开盘定价会参照这个尺价。现在很多发展商的普遍做法是紧盯同行的开盘价,然后跟风涨价。

所谓水涨船高,房地产市场出现这种“一人成道,鸡犬升天”的例子层出不穷,尤其在楼市旺热时更是如此。

私宅作为商业项目,市场供需决定价格的高低,房价堪比天高也没什么好非议的。然而,组屋既然是公共住屋,屋龄也有期限,屋价还直逼150万元,合理吗?

这些天价转售组屋大多是“非一般”组屋。它们只限于户型较大的私人组屋(DBSS)、特别设计的组屋(如拥有双层天花板的阁楼式组屋)或一些特选组屋(如达士岭、杜生阁)等项目中的四和五房式组屋单位。

也许有人认为物以稀为贵,这些特别组屋类型的供应确实稀有,因此在转售市场中赚取较高溢价也是必然的。至于售价直逼150万元合不合理,买家心中自然有数。

但更令人关注的是,如果任由组屋转售价攀升,会不会成为未来组屋的“参考价”而水涨船高,进而带动周边与其他类型组屋价居高不下,到时转售组屋还会是人们心目中“负担得起”的公共住屋吗?

另一方面,两个邻里组屋区咖啡店接连以破4000万元大关的天价转手,也引发关注。公众担心邻里熟食价格可能跟着大涨,咖啡店的摊贩则担心新业主会因此提高租金,加剧成本压力。

咖啡店是贴近民生的食肆,除了提供组屋居民的三餐便利,也是大家感情的交流站。从商业角度看,一般坐落于人口稠密地区的咖啡店,服务社区人口,只要食物美味,价格合理,经营难度不算高,因此称得上是具有吸引力的房地产投资类别。

财团进军邻里炒店 转售价不断攀高
近十几年来,有不少财团把触角伸入组屋区咖啡店和店铺,媒体也不时报道邻里咖啡店高价转手的消息,千万元的咖啡店不再稀奇。就如上述义顺天价咖啡店,据知尺价就高达9361元,远超乌节路一些商场6000多元的尺价。

一些咖啡店易主,随后必定提高摊位的租金,摊主也只能把增加的成本转嫁给食客。我们报馆附近咖啡店的鸡饭摊,两个月前在业主宣布加租2000元后,马上宣布鸡饭价4.50元起跳,不再卖3.50元的。说好听是只卖大碟的鸡饭,实际上是变相涨价。

鸡饭摊主加价都加得如此理直气壮,你还会相信咖啡店以远超过乌节路的尺价转手,食客不必承受熟食起价的后果?消费者更担心天价咖啡店的高租金产生连锁效应,推高周边邻里熟食中心和其他咖啡店租金和熟食价格。

在通货膨胀的“阴霾”笼罩下,市民早已感受到加价潮一浪接一浪,食物价格涨幅尤其明显。面对天价咖啡店的“入侵”,摊贩担忧租金成本压力,消费者担忧熟食不再“价廉”,他们希望当局关注邻里“天价”现象也是无可厚非。

一名邻里商家受访时透露,几年前一些财团进入邻里“扫”店铺后转租牟利,炒高整体店铺价格和租金。他无奈地说:“只有财团和投机买家在炒作,那些真正想做生意的商家,怎么会花天价去买店铺呢?”

大家都在关心咖啡店摊位会加租、店铺租金会涨、熟食价格会调高,但似乎没人去深入探讨、关注、了解或质疑咖啡店、店铺的转售价为何会不断攀高?“天价”是根据哪些经济环境与条件而逐步形成?幕后是否有无形的推手?

如果咖啡店、店铺的成交价,高到租户每月的收入都不足以支付租金,大家是不是应该认真思考,这些交易还具代表性吗?

傅丽云:三思而后行善

傅丽云:三思而后行善
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/forum/views/story20220731-1298185

2022-07-31

编辑室内外

有善心很不错,化慈悲为行动,更加难能可贵。只是,社会变得复杂了,行善也须三思。

一日在午餐后回国家法院媒体室途中,碰见拿着一张纸,一脸茫然的老妇,站在大厅服务柜台前。

老妇是文盲,讲福建话,说上11楼庭室却关着。客服人员午休未返,就陪老妇上楼。

闲聊间,走路一拐一拐的老妇申述,脚没力,从义顺到法庭的德士费要18元。回程想搭巴士,又担心车站太远。

看她的法庭文件,才知她两年前以5万元,保释嗜毒的儿子。今年6月,被判入狱和打鞭的儿子没按时出庭,弃保潜逃了。

身为担保人,她必须出席“陈述理由”(show cause)聆讯,解释为何保金不该被充公。

老妇声泪俱下,说一半的保释金是借来的,另一半是省吃俭用的棺材本,若全数充公,真不知如何是好。

最终,法官裁定老妇没尽担保人的责任,但念在她经济拮据,保金充公一半。

休庭时,准备掏点钱给她。思忖该给多少时,却被她略带红色的染发吸引了。

是自己染的吗?若是在理发院染的,怕要近百元吧?最终,只给她两趟德士费的钱。有意他日探望老妇,“实地考察”一番,看她是否需要其他援助。

向来比较节俭,这些年来,不时思索“发达城市穷人”的定义,努力平衡自己的心态。也自我提醒,不以居高临下的态度施舍,要更宽心接受穷人看似“奢侈”的需要,例如染发、用新款手机,或为了顾及孩子尊严,买名牌运动鞋给孩子等。

一位富有爱心的朋友说,外籍年轻女同事患癌,她号召大家捐款,让她买补品,补补身体。不料,“不懂事”的女同事竟用筹得的几百元,上理发院接发,平白“浪费”了大家的苦心。

朋友说,也许同事太年轻,很介意外表,觉得病重了,也该打扮一下,让自己开心。这么想了之后,朋友也就不再介怀了。

社工朋友一次很气愤地说,他跟随义工派米给贫困家庭,一个家庭居然拒绝,因为不吃这牌子的米。

有善心很不错,化慈悲为行动,更加难能可贵。只是,社会变得复杂了,行善也须三思。

20多年前,华文报还不时为一些悲惨个案收义款。记得当局曾提醒,不要让款项过度集中在一人身上,还有许多人需要帮忙。

当时年轻不解,钱是读者自愿给的,爱给谁就给谁,为何要干预?

后来,碰到曾获得数十万元的残疾受惠者,说当年《联合早报》筹给她的数十万元,早早被亲戚“借”走,她只得继续辛苦工作。

另一受惠者被保险经纪巧言推销,用大笔善款买下高额保单,却对保单内容不甚了解。

现在众筹普遍。看到善款远超目标,有些受惠者会说,把多出的款项捐给其他慈善机构。然而,众筹没有监管机制,没人知道受惠者会否遵守承诺。

参与众筹的热心公众,因为个别捐款额一般不多,通常也不在意受惠者会怎么用那些钱。

今年4月,社运人士吴家和在面簿贴文称,有女子A急需经济援助却求助无门,让人误以为政府和社区机构不知有这起个案或坐视不理,结果接获POFMA更正指示。

社会及家庭发展部的文告说,A和伴侣每月从政府和不同机构得到的援助超过2000元,包括现金,还有租金、服务与杂费、水电费和公共卫生等津贴。

文告提醒,确保信息内容正确是重要的,假信息削弱公众的信心,导致公众误以为当局协助贫困家庭做得不够。

当政府慎重审核申请人的背景,要求提呈各种证明文件时,请别苛责。政府发放的援助金,都是纳税人的钱,当然也须做好尽责调查,小心翼翼。

今年1月,一名37岁女子在疫情期间不好好工作,三番四次伪造文件,骗取2900元的政府援助金津贴,结果被判坐牢一年。

女子求情时表示无话可说,但法官下判时斥责她,指她每骗一块钱,就等于从真正需要援助的人身上剥夺一块钱。

法官的话,一针见血。对大众而言,不论多寡,捐款前请想一想,查一查,了解情况,不要帮错了。

(作者是《联合早报》资深高级记者 pohlh@sph.com.sg)

Saturday, July 30, 2022

林任君:人类第二古老行业欣欣向荣 == 早报 2022-07-30

林任君:人类第二古老行业欣欣向荣

https://www.zaobao.com.sg/forum/views/story20220730-1297921

2022-07-30

除了实体军事情报,今天的潜在敌人也通过信息通信科技收集并分析政治、经济、社会等方面的软体情报,找寻可资利用的要害和弱点。这些都还是“合法”的手段,更多间谍活动其实是在台面下秘密进行,这就考验我们的“反间”和“防间”能力了。

在国际局势日益紧张、地缘政治渐趋复杂、各国情报战愈演愈烈之际,新加坡武装部队宣布将成立“国防数码防卫与情报军部队”(Digital and Intelligence Service,简称DIS)的消息。国防部说,这支部队将成为海陆空三军之外的“第四军”,意味着它可能会是个师级编制,地位很高。这可是我军的一项重大变革。

这支部队的设立是在今年3月宣布,本月初启动立法程序,第四季将正式成军,除了为武装部队打造专属的数码部队,有效应付来自外部环境迅速增加、更有组织、更复杂的数码威胁之外,也凸显情报战在军事行动中与日俱增的重要性。

情报战也称间谍战。这不禁使人想起春秋战国时期《孙子兵法》中的《用间篇》那句名言“故三军之亲,莫亲于间”(所以军队人事中,没有比间谍再亲信的)。虽然古今“三军”意义不尽相同,但都有“全军”的意涵,可见间谍这一行当古已有之,而且自古就有重要地位。

不仅东方如此,西方亦然,所谓“间谍是人类第二古老行业”(仅次于卖淫)的说法,即出于公元前五六百年的《约书亚记》(Book of Joshua,《希伯来圣经》其中一卷),距今已2000多年,但只是寥寥数语,语焉不详。然而,与它差不多同时期问世的《孙子兵法》分量就不同了。这部在公元前515年至512年出版的经典,是最古老的军事理论著作,最后一篇《用间篇》则可说是世界最早的间谍战论述。

孙武在《用间篇》讨论了战争中使用间谍的重要性,科学地划分间谍种类:“故用间有五:有乡间,有内间,有反间,有死间,有生间。”(“乡间”是指利用敌国乡里的普通人做间谍;“内间”指收买敌国的官吏做间谍;“反间”是使敌方间谍为我所用;“死间”指故意散布虚假情况,通过我方间谍传给敌方,敌人上当后往往将其处死;“生间”指派往敌方侦察后能活着回报敌情的。)全篇500多字,结论是:“此兵之要,三军之所恃而动也。”(这是用兵的关键,整个军队都要依靠间谍提供的敌情来决定军事行动。)

孙武在当时就能对间谍的角色如此慎密地分门别类,对各自任务如此细致阐述,建立起一套有系统的间谍理论,着实令人叹服,怪不得《用间篇》被誉为“谍战圣经”了!这部谍战理论以及它所属的整套兵法流传至今,历久弥新,在各国军事学院和大学商业管理课程中不断被学习、研究、应用,甚至被发扬光大,赋予新内容、新生命。

新加坡武装部队也奉《孙子兵法》为圭臬,在训练营级和旅级指挥官,以及师级和旅级参谋官的高级军事战略课程中,将这套古代兵法列为必修必考科目。因此,相信我军将领对孙武的“故三军之亲,莫亲于间”这句话也不陌生,在成立“第四军”时,将“情报军”列为主要组成部分,顺理成章。

国防部对情报的重视当然不是现在才开始。DIS成军后毕竟也只是个战术性单位,新加坡其实还有一个非常重要却极低调的战略情报机构“安全与情报局”(Security and Intelligence Division,简称SID)。这是个高度隐秘的国家级情报单位,成立于1966年,负责对外情报工作,主要是为政府提供国外的军事、政治、外交、经济和社会等方方面面的秘密情报和形势评估,分析可能影响新加坡国家利益的国际局势和地缘政治境况,协助政府在国际和战略课题上做决策,以及防范恐怖主义和网络安全这类跨国威胁等等。

或许由于世局动荡,这个机构在成立55年后,去年突然揭开神秘面纱,出现在公众视野里。去年7月19日,它首次设立网站,开了一个窗口让人窥视,一方面让公众了解它的工作,同时也进行公开招聘,希望增聘研究、行动、科技、企业以及国际合作等方面的人才。该局高级处长迈克尔(化名)在谈到设立网站的目的时说,从地缘政治到恐怖主义,再到网络安全和信息战,SID不断转型和培养新能力以应对不同挑战。他说:“未来甚至还可能出现其他趋势和黑天鹅事件,所以我们也花时间研究一些潜在领域。我们工作所涵盖的范围扩大了,因此不能单靠现有人才,而是需要不同观点的人。”

招揽“不同观点的人”显然是设立网站的目的之一。这是SID罕见的一次“露面”,但也只是惊鸿一瞥。除此之外,关于该局的公开资料可说是凤毛麟角,至今只有英国学者赫胥黎(Tim Huxley)在2001年的《保卫狮城:新加坡武装部队》(Defending The Lion City: The Armed Forces Of Singapore)一书中谈到,但也只是片言只语。

正积极提升信息战能力
赫胥黎形容,拥有大约500名员工的SID是“效率很高和非常有效的”情报组织。他说,SID是新加坡与友好国家秘密情报机构的对话者,从事人工情报收集,并管理和分析卫星图像及信号情报,在这方面被认为是世上最先进者之一。

DIS的成立和SID的亮相,显示国防部非常重视情报战和信息战,正积极提升能力。古往今来,情报战在战争或防止战争中发挥关键作用的例子多不胜数。强大的情报能力除了能提高战争胜算,还能预防侵略或防止战争,而这些恰恰是新加坡这个不希望卷入战争的小国所必须具备的。

其实无论大小国家,只要有能力,都在做情报工作。随着高新科技的迅速发展,尤其是信息通信技术的突飞猛进,情报战的形式和内容已日益先进和多样化,成为一种全方位、全时空、跨领域、多手段的运作。在敌人后方布下耳目的传统人工情报收集工作固然还是不可或缺,但现代情报战已经更多通过卫星、电脑、电信信号等信息通信科技(ICT)进行,无孔不入,无远弗届,让目标无所遁形。

监视和监听就是收集情报的重要手段之一,有本事的情报机构都在做。通过正当手段在网络空间搜集情报,或“不正当”的黑客入侵手段去窃取对方机密,都是大家心照不宣的“标准作业”。科技强国如美国和以色列尤其是这方面的佼佼者,美国那项代号“棱镜计划”(Prism)的大规模监听行动就是典型例子。在这计划下,美国国家安全局(NSA)布下天罗地网,监听监视数以百万计的外国人,不只是敌对国家,连友好国家和盟国的领导人都不放过,就包括时任德国总理默克尔。

这个秘密计划之所以会曝光,要归功于NSA的承包商职员斯诺登(Edward Snowden)在2013年的爆料。他将所盗取的整千万份秘密文件通过《卫报》和《华盛顿邮报》的记者,有系统地在欧美各主要媒体发布,震惊世界,掀起巨大的国际风波,招来各国谴责和抗议,使美国情报部门极度难堪,更让美国形象严重受损。

这些泄密文件显示,“棱镜计划”所收集的不只是关于国家安全或反恐行动的情报,也有系统地收集外国的经济和商业情报,此外还与英国合作建立了名为“梯队”(Echelon)的全球间谍网络,主要用于监视欧洲盟友,包括企业机构。这其实不是美国窃取盟友情报的事第一次公诸于世,早在2000年,美国中央情报局前局长伍尔西(James Woolsey)就在《华尔街日报》发表题为《为什么我们监视盟友》(Why We Spy on Our Allies)的文章,堂而皇之为美国窃取商业情报的行为辩护,说这是保障美国企业获得公平商业竞争环境的必要手段!

斯诺登也好,伍尔西也好,都是美国体制内的知情人士,他们所公开的秘闻都是事实,显示美国所收集或窃取的外国情报有多广泛、多深入,规模有多惊人!这不正应了孙武的名言“无所不用间也”!

因此,看到美国近年来居然还可以板起面孔,道貌岸然地不断对中国做出各种有关“间谍活动”“窃取商业情报”的指责,不禁哑然失笑。“无所不用间也”的确是当今的国际现实,对敌对友“一视同仁”,防不了也避不开,上面提到那些例子也许只是冰山一角而已。

既然世道如此险恶,防人之心不可无,我们就不能不也用间,更不能不反间、防间。上星期参观怡和轩举办的“新加坡沦陷80周年祭—1939陈嘉庚”展览,看到日本在侵略东南亚之前就已长期派出间谍,有系统收集的那些详尽情报,尤其是那张标明“83座目标建筑”的《日军间谍侦察新加坡市区图》,叫人触目惊心。当时还没有现代卫星和通信技术,日本完全靠在地间谍所收集的情报,已经如此精确详细,能够指引日机空袭行动,今天具备高新科技的潜在敌人就更不用说了。

除了实体军事情报,今天的潜在敌人也通过信息通信科技收集并分析政治、经济、社会等方面的软体情报,找寻可资利用的要害和弱点。这些都还是“合法”的手段,更多间谍活动其实是在台面下秘密进行,这就考验我们的“反间”和“防间”能力了。

世局和科技的发展,使间谍这种人类第二古老的行业方兴未艾,欣欣向荣。既然我们再也不能视和平为理所当然,无论是要在国际的合纵连横中找寻最优位置,或是为了预防侵略以及在不幸被战火波及时求胜求存,就不得不陪着玩这种游戏;而且作为毫无天险、没有退路的弹丸岛国,还必须玩得比别人精,比别人高明。SID和DIS是我们的“用间”法宝,除了寄以厚望,我们也应该全心全力给予支持。

(作者是《联合早报》前总编辑)

Covid-19 'I caught Covid-19 three times': S'poreans reinfected with virus see milder symptoms. Straits Times 2022-07-30

For subscribers

'I caught Covid-19 three times': S'poreans reinfected with virus see milder symptoms

https://www.straitstimes.com/life/i-caught-covid-19-three-times-sporeans-reinfected-with-virus-see-milder-symptoms


Venessa Lee
Senior Correspondent
Published
2022-07-30

SINGAPORE - A young man in his 20s has had Covid-19 three times.

A mother had her third pregnancy bookended by Covid-19 infections.

A local comedienne tested positive twice within three months. The third time around, she was too exhausted to go through another test.

Two-and-a-half years into the pandemic, many in Singapore have contracted the virus.

But a number of Singaporeans have caught Covid-19 more than once, raising questions about the chances of reinfection as the Omicron strain and its subvariants continue to wend their way around the world.

Infectious diseases specialists say that newer versions of the virus have become better at evading the body's immune response, even though reinfections tend to be milder than the first infection.

Figures revealed in Parliament in April showed that from Nov 1 last year to March 25 this year, there were 8,845 cases of reinfection in Singapore. By late March, Singapore had recorded about 1.06 million Covid-19 cases since the start of the pandemic, Ministry of Health (MOH) figures show. To date, there are close to 1.7 million Covid-19 cases, according to the MOH website.

Infectious diseases expert Paul Tambyah tells The Straits Times that Covid-19 reinfections are "extremely rare" and estimates that more than 99 per cent of patients in Singapore do not get reinfected.

Still, getting Covid-19 more than once can come as a shock.

Mr A. Tan, 29, who works in the medical sector, has caught the virus thrice. The first time was in March 2020, about a week before the two-month circuit breaker started. There were only around 900 cases of Covid-19 in Singapore then.

Coming down with a fever and cough, he found out he was infected after taking a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test. The bachelor, who declines to use his full name, recalls how worried his mother, a widow and housewife in her 60s, was.

"There were no vaccines then. My biggest concern was spreading the virus to her," he adds. Mr Tan, who has four siblings, lives with his mother and a sister.

After testing positive on March 31, 2020, he was quarantined at Mount Alvernia Hospital. He did not know then that he would not leave his hospital room for two months.

His Covid-19 symptoms faded by the fifth day, but he continued to test positive via PCR swabbing for 61 days before he was discharged.
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In the hospital, he shared a room with three other patients, who came in one after the other. They were foreign workers with whom he is still in contact.

Dr Asok Kurup, an infectious disease physician at Mount Elizabeth Hospital, says the highly sensitive PCR test, which detects genetic fragments of the Sars-CoV-2 virus, can "show up as positive for weeks, even months".

These Covid-19 sufferers are shedding dead viral components picked up by the swab test, and their infection is no longer contagious, he says.

"Most patients are no longer infectious after seven days," he adds.

Mr Tan also suffered from long Covid, where the virus' effects linger, with symptoms such as fatigue and weakness. He lost his sense of smell for eight months.
When lightning strikes thrice

Eighteen months after first contracting Covid-19, Mr Tan developed a sore throat, fever and cough. A PCR swab test on Sept 27 last year confirmed his suspicions.

He says: "I was a bit shocked when I got reinfected. I had had no known contact with infected individuals. My mother cried again. She didn't know what reinfection meant. Was it like dengue, for instance, where reinfections can be quite severe? She felt very sorry for me."

He isolated at home and tested negative using an antigen rapid test (ART) kit on Day 10. This time, his symptoms lasted only two days.

Five months later, on Feb 25 this year, he tested positive again. This time, he had only a sore throat which cleared up overnight. He thinks he probably got it after a visit from a relative who had recently recovered from Covid-19.

Mr Tan, who is healthy and not in a high-risk demographic, laments that he feels "quite unlucky" that he caught the virus thrice in three years.

His infections coincided with the periods when the Alpha, then Delta and Omicron strains became dominant around the world.

"After the second infection, I thought, what are the odds? When I got it the third time, I wondered, what's going on?" says Mr Tan, who was fully vaccinated by February last year and received a booster shot in January this year.

"The silver lining in all of this is that it did get better each time. We have already moved in the direction of endemic Covid-19. I think people still need to take precautions, but it's probably a matter of time before one gets it."

He is glad, at least, that he did not spread the virus to his mother and sister at home, though both caught Covid-19 about two months ago and have since recovered.
Milder but more frequent?

Indeed, Covid-19 reinfections tend to be milder, says Professor Tambyah, a senior consultant at National University Hospital's (NUH) division of infectious diseases and Professor of Medicine at NUS Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine. He adds that this probably extends to infections from future Covid-19 variants.

"All the data suggests that Covid-19 reinfections are milder than the first episode. This is true of most viruses, with the notable exception of dengue," he says. "All known human viruses mutate to become more transmissible and less virulent. As such, the new variants are more likely to be intrinsically milder in the infections that they cause."

Other infectious diseases specialists note, however, that the risk of reinfection is elevated today, which in turn poses more health risks, given the high transmissibility of Omicron, the current dominant strain, and its subvariants.

Dr Ruklanthi de Alwis, deputy director of the Centre for Outbreak Pre paredness at Duke-NUS Medical School, notes that immunity levels are waning in highly vaccinated Singapore, with protection by antibodies declining from both vaccination and from previous Covid-19 infection.

In other countries, she says, "we're seeing that the reinfection period can get shorter".
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Earlier this month, the Australian state of New South Wales revised the Covid-19 reinfection period from 12 to four weeks. The health authorities cited the surge of the Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants in the local community in their decision.

Dr Kurup agrees: "If the previous Covid-19 infection was a long time ago, there may be a great difference between the strains and people can have symptoms again."

He says the ongoing development of new vaccines - such as a pan-sarbecovirus vaccine, targeted at different coronaviruses; or mucosal vaccines, which could trigger protective immune responses at predominant sites of infection like the nose - could offer additional protection against Covid-19.
Feeling vulnerable

Comedienne Sharul Channa, 35, has had Covid-19 twice, maybe thrice.

In a show with fellow entertainer Kumar, The Sharul and Kumar Show 2, this month, she joked about having enough post-infection immunity to donate antibodies.

"I've had Covid three times. In case anyone hasn't got their booster, you can suck my blood," she quipped.

She says she has not had a chance to get a booster shot yet, given her repeated infections over the past eight months.

In November last year and February this year, she experienced symptoms such as a sore throat, cough, runny nose, tiredness and fever, and tested positive both times on PCR tests at a general practitioner's clinic.

Earlier this month, before her show at the KC Arts Centre, she developed similar symptoms, but tested negative using an ART. Too tired for further testing, she chose to self-isolate.

Days after she emerged from isolation, she checked herself into a hospital when she had sharp pains in her lower abdomen. She attributed it to too much sneezing and coughing. Her doctor diagnosed it as "a viral infection", which was likely her third brush with Covid-19.

Dr de Alwis says it is not uncommon to test negative for Covid-19 using an ART, while testing positive with a PCR test at the same time.

The PCR test, which detects the nucleic acid component of the virus, is more sensitive than the ART, which detects proteins produced by actively replicating virus. However, while PCR swabs can pick up low, inactive amounts of the virus, ARTs are a better indicator of infectiousness, says Dr de Alwis.

Dr Kurup adds that maintaining healthy habits like regular exercise and a nutritious diet, as well as keeping chronic diseases like diabetes under control, can reduce the risk of infection and reinfection.

In the meantime, Channa is focusing on building up her immunity with vitamin C supplements and probiotics from her doctor. She recently resumed her 10km walks and gym workouts, which are less intensive than before.

"I can't afford to get Covid-19 again. I need to be careful," she says.
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'The fear of getting Covid-19 is more crippling than Covid-19'

When she caught Covid-19 on two occasions, Mrs Winnie Tomlinson, 41, was more concerned about her family's quarantine arrangements than her own health.

Last September, the Singaporean church worker returned from a trip to the United States with her husband, an American director at an international business school here, and their two sons, Noah, four, and David, five.

She tested positive during their quarantine at a hotel. Minutes before her Covid-19 test result came through, she had taken a pregnancy test as the couple had been trying for a third child.

She recalls: "I found out that I was pregnant practically at the same time I tested positive for Covid-19. It was bittersweet, but we were determined not to let Covid-19 cloud the joy of pregnancy.

"For us, the uncertainty surrounding how long we would be in quarantine, as well as the stress of having PCR tests for our young children, were a lot more stress-inducing than Covid-19 itself."

In the end, she was transferred to another hotel and later, a hospital. There, the doctor instructed her to recover at home instead, together with the rest of her family. Noah tested positive for Covid-19 while in home quarantine, though he was asymptomatic.

In June this year, three weeks after her daughter Maria was born, Mrs Tomlinson's husband Austin came down with Covid-19, which spread to the rest of the family, as well as to their domestic helper.

Mrs Tomlinson and Noah have thus caught Covid-19 twice, and she suspects her three-month-old baby, who had a high fever at one point, may also have been infected. She has not had her booster shot since falling pregnant with Covid-19, while her husband got his a month before he was infected.

Both Mrs Tomlinson's bouts of Covid-19, where she had symptoms like chills, fever and a cold, were mild.

She says: "I've come to realise that the fear of getting Covid-19 is more crippling than Covid-19 itself. The stress is a lot less now, but it's not mentally healthy as a society.

"We've done our part to be socially responsible. Let's move on."

猴子救猫


 

一名躁郁症患者的心声 - 联合早报 2022-07-30


一名躁郁症患者的心声
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/forum/talk/story20220730-1297927

2022-07-30

杨琍萍

每当向人提起双向情绪障碍症时,很多人都不明白,但是如果说是躁郁症(bipolar disorder),大家就明白了。当身边的人知道你患有这种病时,大家都会开始远离你,接下来,不管你做什么事,大家都会觉得是错的。就算你做得多好,大家也会觉得你就是错的。这无疑是在给病人施加压力,诱发病人的情绪。

其实,不是每个患这种病的人都有攻击性,只要用药物控制好,让病人身处一个安静的环境,是能生活如常的。我之前因为其他病而患上躁郁症。由于它会让患者有种生不如死的痛,加上家人的不谅解,随意批评,导致压力上升,躁郁症也就变严重了。每当发作时,就像有只怪兽住在心里面,就想攻击人,恨不得把对方撕裂。

我所形容的,可能会让人觉得不舒服,可是这是患者真真切切的感觉。每次发作,我都担心伤害家人,所以会一直叫他们离我远一点;家人可能也因此觉得我不可理喻,从此大家真的就离我远远的,不然就是在我耳边唠唠叨叨地念个不停,这无疑像个魔咒,在召唤心里面的那只怪兽。有时候,为了保护自己爱的家人,不让他们被那只怪兽伤害,我只能自残。因为只要怪兽看到了血,就会安静下来。

我很幸运地遇到了一位很棒的心理辅导员。她很耐心地陪我一起对付心里面的怪兽,尤其是在家人伤害我的时候,她帮我治疗伤口。当我做出不可理喻的事时,她不会怪我,只会陪我一起渡过,然后找出根源,也陪我一起做实验,看看哪个方法好,就算我做不到,她也不会像家人一样,骂我没用和只会找麻烦。她会告诉我,我已经很勇敢了,因为我已经能控制住那只怪兽,虽然有时候还是被它逃出来,但没有关系,我们只要想个更好的办法锁住它。在遇到那些会召唤它出来的人,或者是语言,或者是环境,立刻撤退,片刻都不要逗留。渐渐地,怪兽真的不能再出来,就算它有时候想强行冲出来,我还是能把它控制住了。接下来,就是要学习怎么加强防守,把笼子加固,就不会让它再出来害人。辅导员说,要找寻每当我做什么事时,怪兽就会安安静静地睡觉的方法,我们就一直用这些方法,一直让它冬眠,不让它再次苏醒。

后来,我发现每当在水里游泳,水的柔度让我很舒服,而且水的温度也能让怪兽没那么狂躁。还有,我发现每当怪兽出来伤人的时候,周边都变成黑白,直到看到红色的血,才能让它静下来。所以,我开始画画,用各种鲜艳的颜色画画,我要让它一直看到漂亮的颜色,这样就不会再吵闹了。经过这些日子的努力,怪兽变得越来越乖,不再吵闹了。偶尔一些环境和人让它狂躁,我就安抚它,告诉它别怕,我们赶快离开就好了。

我想让大家知道,当你们身边有这样的人时,不要像见到怪兽一样,这样只会让你们处于更危险的处境。其实,你们只要降低声量和语调,用最温柔的声音安抚我们。不要用尖酸刻薄的字眼和我们沟通,只要把善良的心拿出来就行了。只有善良的人、善良的话、善良的磁场,才能安抚我们心里面的那只怪兽。

我写这篇文章的目的,是因为我看到很多同伴的可怕行为,他们让怪兽出来伤人了。其实,我也挺同情他们的,因为他们是刚好遇到不善良的人,用了不善良的话,制造了不善良的环境,而把怪兽放出来害人。所以,我想让大家知道,怎么帮助我们把怪兽安抚好。

孤独

Tiger

猫 - 在蘑菇之中

森林里的驯鹿

长颈鹿群

狐狸

大角鹿

棕熊

马群

美景

美景

树林

梅花鹿

调查:八成本地居民满意政府防疫表现 最关注民生医疗课题. 2022-07-28

调查:八成本地居民满意政府防疫表现 最关注民生医疗课题
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/realtime/singapore/story20220728-1297327

2202-07-28


(早报讯)新加坡迈入与冠病共存阶段后,每日确诊人数虽曾一度飙升至超过2万人,防疫政策的时紧时松也造成一些不便。不过一项最新调查显示,本地居民对政府的防疫表现满意度仍高达八成,60岁以上群体的满意度甚至超过90%。

相比之下,台湾虽然在防疫初期交出了漂亮的成绩单,但过去一年当地出现疫苗和检测仪不足的问题,导致人们对相关政策失去信心,产生不满情绪,有近六成的民众不满意政府的防疫表现,而且年纪越大者,不满程度越显著。

《联合早报》与台湾《远见杂志》合作进行“2022世代价值观调查”,这项针对本地和台湾居民的调查分别在今年五六月和六七月之间通过网络问卷方式进行,参与调查的本地和台湾居民均超过1000人。

调查也发现,新台两地民众都认为俄罗斯是俄乌战争的罪魁祸首,最有可能结束这场战事的也是俄乌两国自己。

不过,如果有第三方介入调停,本地民众认为中国大陆最有能力充当“解铃人”的角色(15.4%),台湾民众虽然有15.9%也这么认为,但有更多人看好美国(23.3%)。

至于新台两地民众最重视的课题,“民生与经济”和“医疗”在两地都占据前两位,排第四的也同样是“国际局势”。排第三的在新加坡是“住宅”,台湾则是“教育”课题。

调查结果也颠覆了“年轻一代不关心天下大事”的普遍印象。无论是新加坡或者台湾,30岁以下群体对国际形势的重视比率都高于整体平均值。

物价上涨是全球共同面对的问题,新台两地民众的“节流”方式也略有不同。参与调查的本地居民超过一半会减少购买非日常必需品的开销,但台湾居民倾向于减少娱乐方面的开销。

两地民众最主要的“开源”方式则都是进行投资,但第二选择方面,有更多本地居民选择兼职打工,台湾民众则有较多倾向于“自我充实提升和进修”。

疫情改变了人们的工作方式,两地民众都有超过一半更偏向于远程工作,而且越年轻的群体越是支持新的工作模式,不过新加坡居民更愿意远程工作。

这是《联合早报》和《远见》第三次合作进行跨地区调查。

2015年,《联合早报》和《远见》连同北京的零点研究咨询集团和香港大学民意研究计划,完成了“四地华人社会进步指标调查”,从政府施政、国会效率、媒体可信度和贫富分配等九大指标,观察四地华人社会的进步程度。

两家机构2017年的再次合作,则改同上海东方传媒集团旗下《第一财经》和香港教育大学香港研究学院一起进行“四地青年反转力”调查,了解青年实现梦想的能力,以及对社会经济前景的态度。

Thursday, July 28, 2022

My Weight 2022-07-28

My Weight
2022-07-28
0700 HR 
60.6 kg
BMI 21.991

Wednesday, July 27, 2022

Singapore inflation yet to peak with more MAS tightening expected. Straits Times 2022-07-27

Singapore inflation yet to peak with more MAS tightening expected

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/singapore-inflation-yet-to-peak-with-more-mas-tightening-expected

For Subscribers

Singapore inflation yet to peak with more MAS tightening expected


Prices for goods and services will continue to trend up through the rest of the current quarter at the very least, say analysts. 

Ven Sreenivasan
Associate Editor
Published
2022-07-27

SINGAPORE - Singapore's inflation may have reached 13-year highs, but we are nowhere near the peak.

Analysts reckon that given the uncertainties on the geopolitical front such as the war in Ukraine, continuing supply chain issues, tight labour market and the lockdowns in China, prices for goods and services here will continue to trend up through the rest of the current quarter, at the very least.

"Inflation still hasn't peaked, but hopefully will do so by September or October," pointed out Selena Ling, chief economist and head of treasury research at OCBC Bank.

Data out on Monday (July 25) showed Singapore's annual inflation rate rose the highest since September 2008 to 6.7 per cent in June 2022, jumping from 5.6 per cent in May, as prices of food, transportation, housing and clothing surged.

Households whose incomes were in the top 20 per cent bracket saw a 6 per cent year-on-year increase in overall consumer prices during the period, while those in the lowest 20 per cent experienced a 4.2 per cent rise. The middle 60 per cent saw prices of their goods and services rise 4.9 per cent.

Across all households, the consumer price index (CPI) climbed 5.2 per cent year on year from January to June, higher than the 3.1 per cent increase in the second half of 2021.

"It looks like the upward (inflationary) pressure remains strong, " noted Suan Teck Kin, UOB's head of research. "Transport alone contributed to 3.4 per cent of the 6.7 per cent (CPI number)."

The bulk of the transport costs are related to costs of operation (read: fuel and fares) and costs of ownership (mainly soaring Certificate of Entitlement prices).

Rising inflation erodes the value of money and consumers' purchasing power. Economists point out that some segments of the society may be particularly vulnerable to the impact of inflation, especially if wages do not keep up with price rises.

Singapore's de-facto central bank, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), unlike other central banks like the US Federal Reserve, does not deal with inflation via interest rate adjustments.

Instead, what it does is allow the Singdollar to strengthen against the currencies of Singapore's trading partners in an attempt to dilute the impact of imported inflation.

Anticipating the inflationary spike, the MAS did an unexpected off-cycle tightening of its Singdollar policy earlier this month, and is likely to do another such move at its next scheduled review in October.

But analysts do not expect another off-cycle tightening for now.

"MAS still sounds very cautious about upside inflation risks in the short term, citing fresh commodity price shocks and the tight domestic labour market," Ms Ling said. "So we will have to wait and see, but it looks like another monetary policy tightening in October is likely."

Given that there seems to be no immediate resolution to the factors driving up prices, full year inflation in Singapore is likely to remain high.

"We've adjusted upwards our full year forecast to 6 per cent, from 5 per cent previously," said UOB's Mr Suan.

This is the top end of the official forecast for Singapore CPI.

So can anything douse the inflationary fire?

"With the recession fears in the market, maybe commodity prices will ease further," suggested Ms Ling. Some commodity prices have declined in response to the tightening of monetary policies, including oil and some metal prices.

Whether there will be a global recession remains open to debate. Many analysts expect a potential economic slowdown rather than an outright recession.

The Ministry of Trade and Industry said Singapore's GDP growth this year will likely come in at the lower half of its forecast range of 3 per cent to 5 per cent. But some economists in recent weeks have downgraded their forecasts to as low as 3 per cent.

Also, if prices remain high despite a recession or slowdown, a stagflation (stagnant growth coupled with inflation) could result, as was the case in the late 1970s and early 1980s.

Meanwhile all eyes are on the Federal Reserve's ongoing rate-setting meeting with the US central bank expected to announce another 75 basis points hike in its key lending rate to tamp down inflation running at 41-year highs. The Fed's rate announcement is due at 2am on Thursday, Singapore time.

星展银行服务仍有改进空间 -- 早报 2022-07-27

星展银行服务仍有改进空间
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/forum/talk/story20220727-1296868

2022-07-27

陆昱斌

日前到星展银行的大巴窑中心分行帮家人更新存折,发现银行的服务还有待改进。

自从设在大巴窑建屋局中心的储蓄银行分行关闭后,很多客户转而到位于大巴窑中心的星展银行分行,那里可说天天人龙不断,有老有少。有的是为了网上银行交易出问题而来;有的是无法在自动提款机顺利更新存折;有的则是来存放或提取定期存款等等事宜。后者多半是老人家。

星展银行的分行规模不大,却须要服务很多客户。虽然有客服人员在人龙中穿梭往来,询问来者的目的,但穷于应付。我当天由于无法顺利地在自动提款机更新存折,只好求助客服人员。我发现储蓄银行的存折不时会发生无法更新的问题,不晓得是存折条码容易磨损,还是提款机的打印功能没有定期维修所致。

客服人员告诉我,即使只要求更新存折,也得跟着人龙照排。当问及要等到何时,对方说不知道,然后扬了扬手中好几本等着更新的存折告诉我,有好些客户也在等同样的服务。不过,要先等她处理好其他客户的问题后,才能帮我们做。

于是,我向客服人员索取反馈表格,希望分行可以仿效隔壁的两家银行。比如在自动提款机附近安排职员,随时为更新存折出问题的客户提供快速服务,或者另设一个柜台,专门让客户询问及服务无法在自动存款机更新存折的客户。

不料,银行门口外没放置反馈表,更没有设填写的地方。职员从银行内的其中一个房间拿出一张反馈表递给我,叫我站在支票投入处填写,然后投入支票箱内。我听了感到十分惊讶,怎么连反馈箱也省了,该不是不欢迎客户提供反馈吧?

另外,还有一点一直让我感到纳闷的是,若以存折提款,银行职员须要查看身份证以确定提款者是户头持有人,这一点可以理解,但为何更新存折也要查身份证呢?我有时会帮不良于行的家人更新存折,但谁会随身携带家人的身份证呢?

也许有人会说,使用网银就不会碰到以上的种种问题,但别忘了我们身边还有不少不谙科技的乐龄人士,或者对科技感到恐惧的国人。毕竟,近年来的银行短信钓鱼案件,让一些国人质疑网银的安全性而对之却步,尤其是乐龄人士,更是谈网色变。

大巴窑是个老龄区,需要协助的老人不少,而储蓄银行又是我国历史悠久的银行,很多上了年纪的国人几乎都有它的户头。希望星展银行的大巴窑中心分行能正视上述问题,并做出适当的改进。

Pick Network said there are now more than 1,000 lockers deployed across Singapore - in community clubs, Housing Board estates and public transport nodes.*

Low usage of nationwide delivery locker network, but service partners report productivity gains

2022-07-26

*Pick Network said there are now more than 1,000 lockers deployed across Singapore - in community clubs, Housing Board estates and public transport nodes.*

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/low-usage-of-nationwide-delivery-locker-network-but-service-providers-report-productivity-gains

Covid-19 有必要打第二支冠病疫苗追加剂


有必要打第二支冠病疫苗追加剂

2022-07-27

黄精明

7月15日,我到位于宏茂桥5道(工艺教育学院总部对面)的联合检测与疫苗接种中心,打了第二支冠病疫苗追加剂。当天人不多,过程顺利,只花不到半小时(包括15分钟的观察)便完成接种。

与上几次比较,这次打完后的反应大些,晚上睡觉时,感觉右手臂打针的部位酸痛。第二天,身体有点不舒服,头痛、发烧,体温一度达37.6度,但吃了两片班纳杜,睡一会午觉,醒来已经好多了。第三天早上,手臂的酸痛消退,头痛好了,烧也退了。

根据打冠病疫苗的指导手册,我的这些反应,皆属正常。

我在一个多月之前得了冠病,根据专家的说法,我还是有再次得冠病的可能性,这是因为新毒株奥密克戎的两个亚型变异株BA.4和BA.5,已进化到能避开免疫的防护作用,使体內抗体无法辨识。因此,即使打第二支追加剂,也不能保证不会再染冠病。

为什么还要打第二支追加剂呢?专家给予的理由是,它能很好地保护我们不会得到严重的病情,或导致死亡,特别是对那些属于高风险的年长者,尤其重要。所以,在冠病疫情还在肆虐的当儿,打第二支追加剂是必要的。

https://www.zaobao.com.sg/forum/talk/story20220727-1296870

夕阳

背影

长颈鹿

背影

钓鱼

背影

野外攝影

孤独

捕鱼鸟 - 鱼翁

猫 - 后巷

生命 - 鸟 - 飞虫

背影

黄昏

黄昏

美景

美景

生命

生命