Tuesday, April 8, 2025

I Just Saw the Future. It Was Not in America.

I Just Saw the Future. It Was Not in America.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/02/opinion/trump-tariffs-china.html

April 2, 2025

By Thomas L. Friedman
Opinion Columnist

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I had a choice the other day in Shanghai: Which Tomorrowland to visit? Should I check out the fake, American-designed Tomorrowland at Shanghai Disneyland, or should I visit the real Tomorrowland — the massive new research center, roughly the size of 225 football fields, built by the Chinese technology giant Huawei? I went to Huawei’s.

It was fascinating and impressive but ultimately deeply disturbing, a vivid confirmation of what a U.S. businessman who has worked in China for several decades told me in Beijing. “There was a time when people came to America to see the future,” he said. “Now they come here.”

I’d never seen anything like this Huawei campus. Built in just over three years, it consists of 104 individually designed buildings, with manicured lawns, connected by a Disney-like monorail, housing labs for up to 35,000 scientists, engineers and other workers, offering 100 cafes, plus fitness centers and other perks designed to attract the best Chinese and foreign technologists.

The Lianqiu Lake R. & D. campus is basically Huawei’s response to the U.S. attempt to choke it to death beginning in 2019 by restricting the export of U.S. technology, including semiconductors, to Huawei amid national security concerns. The ban inflicted huge losses on Huawei, but with the Chinese government’s help, the company sought to innovate its way around us. As South Korea’s Maeil Business Newspaper reported last year, it’s been doing just that: “Huawei surprised the world by introducing the ‘Mate 60’ series, a smartphone equipped with advanced semiconductors, last year despite U.S. sanctions.” Huawei followed with the world’s first triple-folding smartphone and unveiled its own mobile operating system, Hongmeng (Harmony), to compete with Apple’s and Google’s.

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The company also went into the business of creating the A.I. technology for everything from electric vehicles, self-driving cars and even autonomous mining equipment that can replace human miners. Huawei officials said in 2024 alone it installed 100,000 fast chargers across China for its electric vehicles; by contrast, in 2021 the U.S. Congress allocated $7.5 billion toward a network of charging stations, but as of November this network had only 214 operational chargers across 12 states.

It’s downright scary to watch this close up. President Trump is focused on what teams American transgender athletes can race on, and China is focused on transforming its factories with A.I. so it can outrace all our factories. Trump’s “Liberation Day” strategy is to double down on tariffs while gutting our national scientific institutions and work force that spur U.S. innovation. China’s liberation strategy is to open more research campuses and double down on A.I.-driven innovation to be permanently liberated from Trump’s tariffs.

Beijing’s message to America: We’re not afraid of you. You aren’t who you think you are — and we aren’t who you think we are.

What do I mean? Exhibit A: In 2024, The Wall Street Journal reported that Huawei’s “net profit more than doubled last year, marking a stunning comeback” spurred by new hardware “running on its homegrown chips.” Exhibit B: The Journal recently quoted the Republican senator Josh Hawley as saying of China, “I don’t think that they can do much innovation on their own, but they will if we keep sharing all this tech with them.”

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Some of our senators need to get out more. If you’re a U.S. lawmaker and want to bash China, be my guest — I may even join you for a round — but at least do your homework. There is too little of that in both parties today and too much consensus that the politically safe space is to hammer Beijing, chant a few rounds of “U.S.A., U.S.A., U.S.A.,” issue some platitudes that democracies will always out-innovate autocracies and call it a day.

I prefer to express my patriotism by being brutally honest about our weaknesses and strengths, China’s weaknesses and strengths and why I believe the best future for both of us — on the eve of the A.I. revolution — is a strategy called: Made in America by American Workers in Partnership With Chinese Capital and Technology.

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Let me explain.

Trump’s magical thinking
I agreed with Trump regarding his tariffs on China in his first term. China was keeping out certain U.S. products and services, and we needed to treat Beijing’s tariffs reciprocally. For instance, China dragged its feet for years on letting U.S. credit cards be used in China, waiting until its own payment platforms completely dominated the market and made it a cashless society, where virtually everyone pays for everything with payment apps on phones. When I went to use my Visa card at a shop in a Beijing rail station last week, I was told it had to be linked through one of those apps, like China’s Alipay or WeChat Pay, which, combined, have a more than 90 percent market share.

I even agree with Trump that additional — targeted — tariffs on China’s back doors into America via Mexico and Vietnam could be useful, but only as part of a larger strategy.

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My problem is with Trump’s magical thinking that you just put up walls of protection around an industry (or our whole economy) and — presto! — in short order, U.S. factories will blossom and make those products in America at the same cost with no burden for U.S. consumers.

For starters, that view completely misses the fact that virtually every complex product today — from cars to iPhones to mRNA vaccines — is manufactured by giant, complex, global manufacturing ecosystems. That is why those products get steadily better and cheaper. Sure, if you are protecting the steel industry, a commodity, our tariffs might quickly help. But if you are protecting the auto industry and you think just putting up a tariff wall will do it, you don’t know anything about how cars are made. It would take years for American car companies to replace the global supply chains they depend on and make everything in America. Even Tesla has to import some parts.

But you’re also wrong if you think that China only cheated its way to global manufacturing dominance. It did cheat, copy and force technology transfers. But what makes China’s manufacturing juggernaut so powerful today is not that it just makes things cheaper; it makes them cheaper, faster, better, smarter and increasingly infused with A.I.

Image
Huawei’s Lianqiu Lake R. & D. campus, a large complex of buildings among green spaces and bodies of water.
Credit...Costfoto/NurPhoto, via Getty Images
Inside the China fitness club
How? Jörg Wuttke, a former longtime president of the E.U. Chamber of Commerce in China, calls it “the China fitness club,” and it works like this:

China starts with an emphasis on STEM education — science, technology, engineering and math. Each year, the country produces some 3.5 million STEM graduates, about equal the number of graduates from associate, bachelor’s, master’s and Ph.D. programs in all disciplines in the United States.

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When you have that many STEM graduates, you can throw more talent at any problem than anyone else. As the Times Beijing bureau chief, Keith Bradsher, reported last year: “China has 39 universities with programs to train engineers and researchers for the rare earths industry. Universities in the United States and Europe have mostly offered only occasional courses.”

And while many Chinese engineers may not graduate with M.I.T.-level skills, the best are world class, and there are a lot of them. There are 1.4 billion people there. That means that in China, when you are a one-in-a-million talent, there are 1,400 other people just like you.

As important, Chinese vocational schools graduate tens of thousands of electricians, welders, carpenters, mechanics and plumbers every year, so when someone has an idea for a new product and wants to throw up a factory, it can get built really fast. You need a pink polka dot button that can sing the Chinese national anthem backward? Someone here will have it for you by tomorrow. It will also get delivered fast. Over 550 Chinese cities are connected by high-speed rail that makes our Amtrak Acela look like the Pony Express.

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And when you relentlessly digitize and connect everything to everything, you can get in and out of your hotel room fast with just facial recognition. Tech-savvy beggars who carry printouts of QR codes can accept donations fast by the scan of a cellphone. The whole system is set up for speed — including if you challenge the rule of the Communist Party, in which case, you will be arrested fast, given the security cameras everywhere, and disappear fast.

If we don’t build a similar fitness club behind any tariff wall, we’ll get just inflation and stagnation. You cannot tariff your way to prosperity, especially at the dawn of A.I.

I was also in China four months ago. Between then and now, China’s A.I. innovators demonstrated their ability to grow their own open-source A.I. engine, DeepSeek, with far fewer specialized U.S. chips. I could feel the mojo in the tech community. It was palpable. Last month Premier Li Qiang said at the opening ceremony of the National People’s Congress that the Chinese government is supporting “the extensive application of large-scale A.I. models.”

A young Chinese auto engineer who once worked for Tesla here told me: “Now everyone is competing over how much A.I. is being inserted. Now you brag about how much A.I. you insert. Everyone is committed. ‘I will use A.I., even if I don’t know how right now.’ You are preparing for that, even if you are on a simple production line for manufacturing refrigerators. ‘I have to use A.I., because my boss told me to.’”

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Attention, Kmart shoppers: When you already have a manufacturing engine as powerful and digitally connected as China’s and then you infuse it with A.I. at every level, it’s like injecting a stimulant that can optimize and accelerate every aspect of manufacturing, from design to testing to production.

Not a good time for U.S. lawmakers to be shunning visits to China for fear of being called panda huggers.

As Han Shen Lin, an American who works as the China country director for the Asia Group, put it to me over breakfast at Shanghai’s Peace Hotel, “DeepSeek should not have been a surprise.” But, he continued, with all the new U.S. “overseas investment restrictions and disincentives to collaborate, we are now blind to China tech developments. China is defining the tech standards of the future without U.S. input. This will put us at a serious competitive disadvantage in the future.”

Beijing does not want a trade war
For all of China’s strengths, though, it does not want a trade war with the U.S. A lot of middle-class people in China are unhappy right now. For more than a decade, many Chinese put their money into buying apartments instead of putting their savings in banks that paid virtually no interest. This created a huge housing bubble. Many people rode it up and then rode it down when the government tightened real estate lending in 2020.

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So they are hoarding their cash because their real estate profits are gone but the government pension and health care payments are meager. Everyone has to save for a rainy day.

As my colleague Keith Bradsher just reported, the economic slowdown is depriving the Beijing government of the very tax revenues it needs to stimulate the economy and subsidize “the export industries that are driving economic growth but could be hurt by tariffs.”

In short, China’s fitness club is awesome, but Beijing still needs a trade deal with Trump that protects its export engine.

We do, too. Trump, though, has become such an unpredictable actor, changing policies by the hour, that Chinese officials seriously wonder if they can get any deal with him that he will stick by.

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Michele Gelfand, a Stanford University expert on negotiating, said: “Trump’s defenders argue that his unpredictability keeps opponents off balance. But great negotiators know that trust, not chaos, is what gets lasting results. Trump’s win-lose approach to deal making is a dangerous game.” She added, “If he continues to recklessly treat allies as adversaries and negotiations as battlegrounds, America risks not just bad deals but a world where we have no one left to deal with.”

To my mind, the only win-win deal is one that I’d call: Made in America, by American Workers, in Partnership With Chinese Capital, Technology and Experts. That is, we just reverse the strategy China used to get wealthy in the 1990s, which was: Made in China, by Chinese Workers, With American, European, Korean and Japanese Capital, Technology and Partners.

Here is how Jim McGregor, a business consultant who lived in China for 30 years, explained it to me: Big U.S. multinationals used to go to China and do a joint venture with a Chinese company to get into the Chinese market. Now foreign companies are coming to China and saying to Chinese multinationals: If you want to get into Europe, do a joint venture with me and bring your technology.

We should be combining any tariffs on China with a welcome mat for Chinese companies to enter the U.S. market by licensing their best manufacturing innovations to U.S. firms or by partnering with them and creating advanced manufacturing factories in 50-50 ventures. Chinese joint ventures in the U.S., though, would have to be required to steadily increase the share of parts they source locally, instead of just importing them indefinitely.

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This, of course, would require a huge effort to rebuild trust, which is now almost entirely missing in the relationship. It’s the only way to get to reasonably win-win trade. Without it, we’re heading for lose-lose. For instance, on March 19, the Texas Senate gave initial passage to a bill that would bar residents of and organizations based in China, Iran, North Korea and Russia from owning property in Texas. Putting China on that list is just stupid: Hey, let’s ban some of the greatest brainpower in the world instead of laying out incentives and conditions for them to invest in Texas.

When did we get so frightened? And when did we so lose sight of the world in which we’re living? You can denounce globalism all you want, but it won’t change the fact that telecommunications, trade, migration and climate change have fused us, and our fates, together.

I like the way Dov Seidman, the author of the book “How: Why How We Do Anything Means Everything,” describes it. He told me that when it comes to the U.S. and China — and the world at large — “interdependence is no longer our choice. It’s our condition. Our only choice is whether we forge healthy interdependencies, and rise together, or maintain unhealthy interdependencies and fall together.”

But whichever it is, we’re doing it together.

Leaders of both countries used to know that. Eventually, they will relearn it. The only question in my mind is: By the time they do, what will be left of the once unified global economy that produced so much wealth for both nations?


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Thomas L. Friedman is the foreign affairs Opinion columnist. He joined the paper in 1981 and has won three Pulitzer Prizes. He is the author of seven books, including “From Beirut to Jerusalem,” which won the National Book Award. @tomfriedman • Facebook

A version of this article appears in print on April 6, 2025, Section SR, Page 4 of the New York edition with the headline: China Is Where the Future Is Happening. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper |

The world's leading countries in research and development (R&D) expenditure, based on the most recent data.(Information source: ChatGPT, 6 April 2025)

特朗普為什麼贏不了?|特朗普加征關稅反讓中國更偉大?美國制造業失敗的10大真相|特朗普|美國加征關稅|全球經濟|制造業|美國經濟|美國貿易政策|...

特朗普為什麼贏不了?|特朗普加征關稅反讓中國更偉大?美國制造業失敗的10大真相|特朗普|美國加征關稅|全球經濟|制造業|美國經濟|美國貿易政策|...

【harmonica】口琴演奏《千千阙歌》(夕焼けの歌)经典旋律百听不厌(园园sonoko)

你不再属于我-晨熙-伴奏 KARAOKE

Sunday, April 6, 2025

Saturday, April 5, 2025

【全程字幕】"全球化已死恐爆全球貿易戰"新加坡總理黃循財向人民報告關稅衝擊 5分鐘談話滿滿領導風範

Watch: Lee Kuan Yew's Godly Predictions About China's Rise

南洋大学校门1955

湖北潜江市广华水杉公园

Scam: 一场精心设计的跨国诈骗陷阱

交流站:一场精心设计的跨国诈骗陷阱

https://www.zaobao.com.sg/forum/talk/story20250405-6119454

胡益发


这是发生在3月的真实遭遇,至今回想仍心有余悸。那个看似平常的工作日下午,一通来自“新加坡”的陌生电话(新加坡电话区号+八位数号码)彻底打乱我的生活节奏。

第一幕:精心铺垫“官方通知”

自称“中国移动客服”的人员用标准普通话告知,我的护照信息在今年2月19日被用于在杭州注册手机号,号码因群发1万3200余条理财诈骗信息已被立案调查。对方准确报出我的姓名和护照号码,甚至提供详细“作案证据”——2月22日10时42分在杭州萧山国际机场T2航站楼领取SIM卡的具体时间地点。当我说明当时根本不在中国时,对方立即建议我“必须立即报警”,并“热心”将电话转接至“杭州市公安局”。

第二幕:演技精湛的“警方办案”

自称谢警官的男子通过Zoom视频露面,身着警服在看似正规的办公环境中操作。他先是花了整小时“科普”个人信息保护知识,专业态度让我差点相信,这就是中国人民警察的真实工作状态。随后事态急转直下——他声称在我的名下还查获一个涉及536万元非法资金的中国银行账户,并展示所谓的“银行流水截图”。他宣称此案牵涉以“江海涛”为首的跨国犯罪团伙,甚至向我展示多张“在逃嫌犯照片”,包括新加坡警务人员和银行高管。

第三幕:心理操控的终极陷阱

在连续数日的心理攻势下,骗子逐步收网:要求我签署“保密协议”、24小时保持Zoom通话状态、随时报备行踪。他们威胁称中新已签署引渡条约,若我不配合将面临“跨国缉捕”。最令人后怕的是,对方要求我不得向任何人透露此事,连妻子提醒这是骗局时,我竟已被洗脑到坚信这些“警官”才是真正帮助我的人。

直到在摄影器材店偶遇另一位受害者,看到网络贴文中与我完全相同的诈骗剧本,才如梦初醒。警方确认这是典型的“冒充公检法”诈骗,犯罪团伙可能会利用视频会议录制的影像进行AI换脸诈骗。虽然未造成直接财物损失,但我的生物信息已遭泄露,现已在社交媒体发布防骗警示。

重要提醒:

一、 任何政府机构都不会通过电话办案;

二、 勿在视频会议中出示证件;

三、 涉及“跨国案件”“引渡条约”必是诈骗;

四、 第一时间与亲友核实可疑情况。

这场持续72小时的心理战给我上了沉重一课。诈骗分子深谙心理学,通过制造恐慌、树立权威、情感操控等手段逐步瓦解受害者防线。希望我的经历能成为更多人的警示,让骗子无机可乘。

印度大范围在国内造高铁,结果还得跟中国买轮子!高铁车轮有多难造?#科普

DeepSeek 能全相信吗?

Video 视频:看看【大萌的作品】 *DeepSeek 能全相信吗?真的?假的?*

 https://v.douyin.com/ekmUgsURKec/

Friday, April 4, 2025

Fixed Deposit Interest Rates - Shin Min Daily News (2025-04-04)

Fixed Deposit Interest 多家银行定存利率进一步调低 -- 新明日报

多家银行定存利率
进一步调低

新明日报
王佳慧 报道
jiahuio@sph.com.sg

多家银行进一步调低定期存款促销利率, 目前最高是GXS银行的 2.58%,其余的都纷纷下滑甚至有的还低过2%。分析师指出因大环境因素定存利率下调在所难免,而不熟悉投资的公众切勿看到其他高回报工具就匆匆下手。

自今年开年以来,银行定存利率不断走低。本报1月报道,尚有两家银行开出3%及以上的利率,时隔两个多月,如今市面上已不见3%的定存利率。

本地数码银行GXS类似定存的“Boost Pocket”今年1月还开出三个月享2.98%的奖励利率,之后调低至2.78%,而本周再降至2.58%。

至于其他银行,如中国银行和中国工商银行, 今年1月份仍提供3个月定存可获3%年利率的定存优惠,如今已分别减少至2.5%和2.4%(若存款超过20万则有2.45%)。

本地三大银行的定存促销利率也略有变动,除了星展银行维持在2.45%,华侨银行和大华银行的促销利率已分别下调至2.15%和2.3%。

汇丰银行年头还开出最高2.45%的定存利率, 如今一般银行客户的3和6个月利率已经低于2%, 降至1.9%。

受访分析师指出,美国总统特朗普的关税措施给全球经济带来不确定性。市场分析师颜子伟说, 本地和国际市场将面临压力,在经济可能衰弱的情况下,银行定存利率随之降息是合理的应对措施。

“以前也出现过1%的定存利率,所以现在的利率也不算太低。目前市场不太好,对于不会投资的公众而言,还是暂时别轻举妄动,更不要投机或
是乱投资。”

中国银河证券新加坡经济顾问宋生文说,目前有太多不确定性,保守的公众还是可以选择把存款放入定存赚取利息。


Thursday, April 3, 2025

宋明家:“AI云人亦云”会让科学停滞不前

宋明家:“AI云人亦云”会让科学停滞不前
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/forum/views/story20250403-6108022

2025-04-03


AI无法挑战传统知识或概念,只能一再“人云AI亦云、AI云人亦云”的强化人类当前的主流看法。AI也无能辨别科学界可能存在的一些偏见。长远来看,当不同水平的大部分大学生,依赖AI完成作业和论文,学界的学术水平、大学生思维能力就会受到局限,甚至停滞不前。

近三年内,诸如ChatGPT、DeepSeek等生成式人工智能(Generative AI)软件的出现,引发教育界广泛关注;后者全球下载量在发布第一周就突破1亿,远远超过ChatGPT同期的“100万”表现。

对大学教授而言,这些软件在大学教育具有“无限潜能”;笔者自ChatGPT面世后的三个月内,就已在课堂聘用它为“虚拟教学助手”,同时也点明ChatGPT在许多专业知识领域里,是属于“仙家级别的教学助手”,并要求学生挑战它,对它提供的每一个答案找出错误或破绽。

但随着AI技术的不断更新和效能提升,许多大学生开始在课业上高度依赖它。2023年11月,《中国青年报》刊登一项针对7055名大学生的问卷调查,结果显示85%受访者曾使用AI工具来完成课业,而约16%和58%的人分别说“经常使用”和“偶尔使用”。

在这些大学生当中,有约46%用AI来“写作”,而“资料查询”(61%)和“翻译”(58%)则是排名第一和二的两大用途。大约在同个时候,美国一个提供高等教育资讯的BestColleges网站,也曾对1000名本科和研究生进行调查,结果显示56%大学生曾使用AI来完成作业或考试。

2024年8月,数码教育委员会(Digital Education Council)发布的全球AI调查(涵盖16个地区共3839名本科、硕士、博士生)表明,约86%学生表示他们在学习中使用AI技术,其中78%受访者至少每天或每周使用一次。“创建初稿”这AI用途在受访者群体占24%;“搜索信息”是最多人(69%)使用的AI功能;“检查语法”和“总结文档”分别为42%和33%。

在搜寻资料、翻译、检查语法、编码、绘图等学习用途上,使用AI无疑能提升学生的学习能力和效果。笔者也认同大学生使用AI来进行“寻找/修正错误”的任务,其中编码课程、语法修正等任务是佼佼者。过去学生在编写程序代码时,常因细微错误(如少了一个逗号或冒号),而导致程序无法正常运行。在大多数情况下,这须要耗费大量时间和精神去侦察错误,但AI工具可以快速指出错误,帮助我们高效解决问题。

但最令教授头疼的,是学生使用AI代写作业或论文的问题。

当前AI还属于“仙家”水平
笔者绝对不认同让本科水平的大学生使用AI来书写、完成作业,即便只是依靠AI来提供报告或作业的大纲,因为在特定专业领域里,本科水平的学生不具备分辨概念真伪、对错的专业能力。当前的AI还是无法具备深厚的专业知识,因为缺乏人类专家输入这些特定专业知识,它们还是会仙家地胡扯或硬扯风马牛不相及的内容。

至少在现阶段,ChatGPT和DeepSeek,都属于这类“仙家”AI。同时,使用这些AI来“生成作业/论文”“总结文档”,也完全违背培育新手独立思考的基础训练,并妨碍学生的学习目的。

最关键的是,对学术界特定领域的初学者而言(尤指大学本科和以下水平的学生),在大多数情况下,生成式AI只能写出千篇一律、毫无新意的作业或论文,而不是具有创造性的内容。

笔者这两年多观察学生提交的作业和论文,发现AI存在“只有人类头脑”可以突破的诸多局限。

首先,生成式AI的“接龙”和“填空题”模型训练,只能够遵循现有网上数据和知识结构(而非原创发现),去预测、衍生、组合、改写、模拟出可能的答案,而不能生产出创新内容。AI无法涵盖所有可能条件、假设、局限、影响因子或情境,也无法提出新的研究问题,或挑战现有科学论据,更无法分析和整合新数据、新思想,去得出真正具创造力的原创性看法。

在科学研究里,挑战现有范式、进行科学试验去达致“范式转移”(paradigm shift)是重中之重,亦即打破传统既有的概念和理论,做出全新思维或行为方式。但拘于前述“接龙”模型训练模式,AI无法挑战传统知识或概念,只能一再“人云AI亦云、AI云人亦云”的强化人类当前的主流看法。

再者,AI也无能辨别科学界可能存在的一些偏见,反而只会强化、延续现有数据和知识的偏见,导致具有误导性的结论。

长远来看,当不同水平的大部分大学生,依赖AI完成作业和论文,学界的学术水平、大学生思维能力就会受到局限,甚至停滞不前。即便AI公司聘请大量专业人士来输入资讯以进行AI模型训练,也只能达到和当前科学家同等水平的特定知识,而不是更上一层楼的原创性知识。真正的创新和科学进展,还是必须仰赖人类的批判性思维、想象力和创造力,这是AI所办不到的。

不管怎样,大学生都必须明白生成式AI的使用政策,而个别大学也有义务去制定明确政策,让学生更清楚知道,什么情况下“能”或“不能”使用AI来协助完成课业。

作者是分子遗传学博士、马来西亚蒙纳士大学副教授

社交媒体是青少年心理健康的双刃剑

Zaobao
医生执笔

社交媒体是青少年心理健康的双刃剑

李清副教授(心理卫生学院高级顾问心理医生,人口心理健康教育办事处医务总监)
发布/2025年4月1日 05:00
社媒可能导致的心理健康问题包括:焦虑、抑郁、睡眠质量差、孤独、自卑、自恋、强迫行为、成瘾和形象问题等。当青少年无法连接上互联网或社交网站时,他们会感到担心或不舒服。
青少年在使用社媒时碰到的心理健康问题取决于多种因素,包括青少年的成熟度,已有的心理健康状况,个人价值观和生活环境。 (iStock图片)






近期,有很多关于社交媒体如何影响心理健康的讨论。成年人尚且无法克制社媒的使用乃至成瘾,更何况自制力不强的青少年,所以有些国家甚至考虑采取最低年龄限制来统一控制。

社媒让用户可通过电子通信形式共享个人信息、想法和其他内容如照片和视频等。 在X、LinkedIn、Instagram、YouTube等社交平台,多数用户每天都会活跃于他们喜欢的平台上。脸书依然是使用最广泛的社媒平台,用户中有四分之三每天至少登上该网站一次。

青少年在使用社媒时碰到的心理健康问题取决于多种因素,包括青少年的成熟度,已有的心理健康状况,个人价值观和生活环境。社媒可能导致的心理健康问题包括:焦虑、抑郁、睡眠质量差、孤独、自卑、自恋、强迫行为、成瘾和形象问题等。当青少年无法连接上互联网或社交网站时,他们会感到担心或不舒服。

李清医生说,除了心理健康问题外,青少年也可能因长时间久坐和少活动引发其他健康问题,如常见的肥胖症、高血压等。(受访者提供)
李清医生说,除了心理健康问题外,青少年也可能因长时间久坐和少活动引发其他健康问题,如常见的肥胖症、高血压等。(受访者提供)

被不切实际的帖子误导

研究结果显示,每天花三小时使用社媒与出现心理健康问题的风险较高相关,心理健康状况更差,幸福感更低。社媒的负面影响通常归因于帖子中不切实际的描述,引导一些青少年形成对他人生活或身体的非真实看法——爱慕虚荣,感觉不够格,不比他人好。此外,社媒上的某些冒险相关内容以及负面帖子或互动,可能导致青少年的自我伤害或伤害他人,或鼓励他们与进食障碍相关的习惯,如饮食障碍症。

青少年也可能碰上网上骚扰和网络欺凌的风险。他们在社媒上可能分享非常私人的事;或在愤怒或沮丧之下不加思考发布一些信息或私密照。社媒平台上龙蛇混杂,在线猎手会试图利用、骚扰、勒索或敲诈这些青少年。青少年也可能接触与歧视、仇恨或网络欺凌相关的内容,增加焦虑或抑郁的风险。

除了心理健康问题外,青少年也可能因长时间久坐和少活动引发其他健康问题,如常见的肥胖症、高血压等代谢综合症。

善用社媒可带来正面影响

当然社媒也可能为青少年的心理健康带来正面影响。通过社交网络,他们能与有相同爱好或经历的人彼此提供支持;尤其是当青少年在线下缺乏社会支持或感到孤独,正在承受巨大压力,或是属于经常被边缘化的群体。在这种情况下,社媒可能是一个很好的资源,提升自我表达能力,自我认同,学习机会,分享创意项目或与失散已久的朋友重新联系与沟通。青少年也可通过社媒查看或参加鼓励公开讨论心理健康等主题的适当聊天论坛,并针对心理健康状况的症状寻求帮助。

随着技术创新的不断发展,人们与社媒的互动方式正在迅速改变,例如学校也使用数码产品作为辅助教学。家长在防止社媒妨碍青少年活动、睡眠、饮食或学习时,可以设定每日的使用时间限制,或选择在特定时间段禁止使用社媒,例如家庭用餐时间和睡前一小时。家长应定期与孩子沟通社媒相关事宜,鼓励孩子说出是否遭遇网络上的烦恼或困扰。家长更应该以身作则,为孩子树立榜样,设定清晰的社媒界限,甚至考虑牺牲自己对社媒的使用。


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"AI Parroting Humans" Could Stagnate Scientific Progress*

*"AI Parroting Humans" Could Stagnate Scientific Progress*

(Translated from an article in Lianhe Zaobao by DeepSeek)

https://www.zaobao.com.sg/forum/views/story20250403-6108022  

2025-04-03  


Song Ming Jia
(The author holds a Ph.D. in molecular genetics and is an associate professor at Monash University Malaysia.)

=====

AI cannot challenge traditional knowledge or concepts—it can only reinforce mainstream human views by repeatedly "parroting what humans say" and having humans "parrot what AI says." AI is also incapable of identifying potential biases in the scientific community. In the long run, if most college students of varying skill levels rely on AI to complete assignments and papers, academic standards and students' critical thinking abilities will become limited, or even stagnate.  

Over the past three years, the emergence of generative AI tools like ChatGPT and DeepSeek has drawn widespread attention in education. The latter surpassed 100 million global downloads in its first week, far outpacing ChatGPT's "1 million" during the same period.  

For university professors, these tools hold "limitless potential" in higher education. Within three months of ChatGPT's launch, I employed it as a "virtual teaching assistant" in my classes. At the same time, I pointed out that in many specialized fields, ChatGPT is a "charlatan-level teaching assistant" and encouraged students to challenge it—to identify errors or flaws in every answer it provides.  

However, as AI technology continues to advance and improve, many students have become highly dependent on it for their coursework. In November 2023, *China Youth Daily* published a survey of 7,055 college students, revealing that 85% of respondents had used AI tools to complete assignments, with about 16% and 58% saying they used it "frequently" or "occasionally," respectively.  

Among these students, around 46% used AI for "writing," while "information searching" (61%) and "translation" (58%) were the top two applications. Around the same time, BestColleges, a U.S.-based higher education information website, surveyed 1,000 undergraduate and graduate students, finding that 56% had used AI for assignments or exams.  

In August 2024, the Digital Education Council released a global AI survey (covering 3,839 undergraduate, master's, and doctoral students across 16 regions), showing that about 86% of students used AI in their studies, with 78% using it at least daily or weekly. "Drafting initial versions" accounted for 24% of AI usage among respondents, while "searching for information" was the most common function (69%). "Grammar checking" and "summarizing documents" accounted for 42% and 33%, respectively.  

For learning tasks like searching for information, translation, grammar checking, coding, and drawing, AI undoubtedly enhances students' efficiency and outcomes. I also support students using AI for "finding/correcting errors," particularly in coding courses and grammar corrections. In the past, students often struggled with minor coding mistakes (like missing a comma or colon), causing programs to fail. Such errors typically required significant time and effort to debug, but AI tools can quickly pinpoint issues, enabling efficient problem-solving.  

However, what troubles professors most is students using AI to write assignments or papers on their behalf.  

### Current AI is Still at a "Charlatan" Level  
I firmly oppose undergraduate students using AI to write or complete assignments—even if only for generating outlines—because, in specialized fields, undergraduates lack the expertise to discern the accuracy or validity of concepts. Current AI lacks deep professional knowledge; without input from human experts, it tends to fabricate or force irrelevant content, behaving like a charlatan.  

At least for now, ChatGPT and DeepSeek fall into this "charlatan AI" category. Moreover, using these tools to "generate assignments/papers" or "summarize documents" completely undermines the foundational training of independent thinking for beginners and hinders their learning objectives.  

Most critically, for beginners in specific academic fields (especially undergraduates and below), generative AI often produces generic, unoriginal assignments or papers rather than creative content.  

Over the past two years, my observations of student submissions have revealed many limitations in AI that "only the human mind" can overcome.  

First, generative AI's "word prediction" and "fill-in-the-blank" training models can only predict, derive, rephrase, or simulate possible answers based on existing online data and knowledge structures (not original discoveries). They cannot produce innovative content. AI cannot account for all possible conditions, hypotheses, limitations, influencing factors, or scenarios, nor can it propose new research questions or challenge existing scientific arguments. It is also incapable of analyzing and synthesizing new data or ideas to arrive at truly creative, original insights.  

In scientific research, challenging existing paradigms and conducting experiments to achieve a "paradigm shift" is paramount—breaking traditional concepts and theories to establish entirely new ways of thinking or approaches. However, constrained by its "word prediction" training model, AI cannot challenge conventional knowledge; it can only reinforce prevailing human views through endless cycles of "AI parroting humans and humans parroting AI."  

Furthermore, AI cannot identify potential biases in the scientific community—instead, it amplifies and perpetuates biases in existing data and knowledge, leading to misleading conclusions.  

In the long term, if most college students of varying levels rely on AI for assignments and papers, academic standards and students' thinking abilities will stagnate. Even if AI companies hire numerous professionals to input data for model training, the result will only match the current level of specialized knowledge among scientists—not groundbreaking original insights. True innovation and scientific progress still depend on human critical thinking, imagination, and creativity—something AI cannot replicate.  

Regardless, students must understand policies on generative AI usage, and universities have a responsibility to establish clear guidelines so students know when they "can" or "cannot" use AI to assist with coursework.  

The author holds a Ph.D. in molecular genetics and is an associate professor at Monash University Malaysia.

Wednesday, April 2, 2025

I AM CHINESE NAVY (Starting from 31-3-2025)

Tuesday, April 1, 2025

Monday, March 31, 2025

【人討厭貨紮實Part2】專訪 前立委 蔡正元|欸!我說到哪裡了?2025.03.31

China vs India Civic Sense - This is truly shocking... 🇨🇳 中国vs印度。。。我震惊了

散步有助忘却烦恼

#散步能让人忘却烦恼,获得安心吗#散步,步行助散心,排解烦闷,使心情舒畅,安定心情。

很多人 看清就好 别故意揭穿,

少言是修养,闭嘴是智慧,

很多事,知道就好,

别到处宣扬,

很多人,看清就好,

别故意揭穿,

独处长思己过,闲谈莫论人非,

静而不争,才是一个人最好的风水。

很多事 知道就好 别到处宣扬

少言是修养,闭嘴是智慧,

很多事,知道就好,

别到处宣扬,

很多人,看清就好,

别故意揭穿,

独处长思己过,闲谈莫论人非,

静而不争,才是一个人最好的风水。

少言是修养 闭嘴是智慧

少言是修养 
闭嘴是智慧
群处守嘴
独处守心
修己以清心为要
涉事以慎为先

静坐常思己过 闲谈莫论人非。


静坐常思己过,
闲谈莫论人非。

静坐常思己过

静坐常思己过
闲谈莫论人非
少言是修养 
闭嘴是智慧
群处守嘴
独处守心
修己以清心为要
涉事以慎为先

Sunday, March 30, 2025

李嘉诚出售港口给美国的事情越来越严重了,中央媒体的连发五个观点评论这个事情,如果不听下手可能会非常重

緬甸7.7強震,曼谷大樓倒塌的真正原因

理财锦囊:数码平台现金管理账户 是馅饼还是陷阱?萧维旸

zaobao singaporeZaobao

理财锦囊:数码平台现金管理账户 是馅饼还是陷阱?

发布/3 小时前
2025-03-30


3月10日,数码金融业者Chocolate Finance突然宣布,由于用户提款需求过高,平台临时暂停提款服务。3月21日,Chocolate Finance称已处理所有提款要求,重申客户资金安全。然而,这难免触动投资者担忧:把钱放在数码金融平台,究竟是否安全?
(插图/庄明让)




----------------------

数码金融平台盛行以来,新加坡出现不少现金管理账户(Cash Management Account)产品,供投资者存放现金,一般能赚取比传统零售银行更诱人的利率。

吸引到资金后,这些数码金融平台会把钱投放到以货币、债券为主的基金。

譬如,成立于2017年的智安投(Endowus)旗下的Cash Smart,便将用户资金投入不同类型的货币基金,用户预期回报率介于2.7%至3.8%。

另一平台StashAway旗下的Simple Plus则将用户资金投入固定收益基金,每年预期回报率为3.6%。StashAway成立于2016年。

成立于2017年的Syfe旗下的Cash+ Flexi,也将用户资金投放在货币或债券基金,预期回报率介于3.2%至4.3%。

这次出现“挤提”事件的Chocolate Finance资历最浅,成立于2024年,投资策略与市场上的其他业者大同小异,主要将资金投入固定收益基金。至于回报率,首2万元为3.3%,之后3万元则是3%。

一般来说,消费者若手中有闲钱,可放入银行定期存款,也可放入收益较高的银行储蓄户头和现金替代品,如储蓄债券、国库券、现金管理账户和短期债券基金等。

现金管理账户,要在这一系列产品中脱颖而出,提供相对诱人的回报率是关键。

自三个月新元隔夜利率(SORA)自年初跌破3%以来,截至3月27日,新加坡各大银行提供的六个月定存利率趋近2%。

最新一批六个月期新加坡政府国库券(T-bills)截止收益率为2.73%

相比之下,上述数码平台现金管理账户提供的回报率,目前仍平均超过3%,高于银行定存或国库券带来的回报。

为了吸引用户,各大现金管理账户征收费用低廉。例如,Cash Smart的管理费每年0.15%,并豁免销售与交易费用;StashAway Simple Plus账户的管理费则是0.2%,没征收其他交易费。

Moomoo新加坡旗下的Moomoo Cash Plus,则不征收任何赎回或平台费用。

平台运营开支较少 收费比传统机构低

财务咨询企业Finexis Advisory副总监陈文光对《联合早报》说,由于平台运营开支较低,因此可征收比传统金融机构更低的费用。Providend财务规划师卓智涵指出,透过简化流程,现金管理账户得以大幅减少费用,进而降低用户的入门门槛。

当然,现金管理账户并非无风险。它与一般银行定存最大的不同是,客户存款不在新加坡存款保险公司(Singapore Deposit Insurance Corporation,简称SDIC)保障内。在SDIC的存款保险计划下,若本地银行和金融机构陷入危机,存户存款仍受保障,受保上限为10万元。

这次的Chocolate Finance挤提事件,也为用户与投资者上了宝贵的一堂课。

挤提事件发生,主要源于Chocolate Finance设定的即刻(immediate)提款政策。成立之初,平台除了承诺提供高达4.2%的回报率,也允许用户能即时提款,这在现金管理账户领域,颇为罕见。

据卓智涵观察,现金管理账户的用户提出提款请求后,一般要等几个工作日才会收到资金。

譬如,智安投的Cash Smart需要两天到四天,才能完成用户提款请求;Moomoo Cash Plus、Syfe旗下的Cash+ Flexi需要至少一天时间。

专家:挤提主要源于行销营运管理不一致

即时提款服务,有助Chocolate Finance广招用户,但也难免伴随流动性受限的风险。平台遇上激增的提款需求后,被迫宣布暂停即时提款服务,将提款时间延长到三天至10天。这项宣布一出,让用户更加恐慌。

财务规划公司星融(SingCapital)执行总裁谢诏全说,上述挤提事件主要源于平台行销策略、提款流程、流动性管理不一致。“这件事突显行销活动、营运能力、投资者预期管理一致的重要性。”

Moomoo新加坡总裁谢瑞业指出,金融产品或服务的设计,并无绝对的对错,而取决于现金管理账户业者愿意承受多少风险。“若要提供即时提款服务,那么维持充足的资金储备至关重要,否则,突如其来的大规模提款请求,可能对平台施加巨大压力。”

决定投资之前 彻底了解平台

尽管Chocolate Finance已处理好所有提款,且一再强调客户资金安全,但市场难免担心,类似事件会否再度发生,或延烧到其他平台。

卓智涵说,由于其他平台并没有即时提款功能,类似事件再度暴发的可能性不大。

陈文光则劝告用户,决定投资前,应该对平台有彻底的了解,包括提款政策、用户评价、过往记录等。他担忧,一些新平台可能会优先考虑自身收入与市场份额,忽略须要进行的安全措施。

以此次Chocolate Finance“挤提”事件的导火线来看,主要是由公司的一次新尝试引起。

事源公司与电子付款公司AXS合作,让客户的AXS付款赚取里数积分。但由于通过AXS付款账单激增,远超公司预期,使公司与AXS的合作关系难以为继,于是公司取消对AXS付款的支持。这导致许多客户产生不满和负面评论,进而造成取款增加。Chocolate Finance当时解释,公司并非遇上资金流动性问题。

新加坡金融管理局答复《联合早报》询问时说,所有数码财富平台(Digital Wealth Platform),都不能将自身、客户资金混合在一起,必须将客户资金存放在独立托管机构的账户中。

“此外,受金管局监管的金融机构,必须建立相应机制,及时处理消费者投诉并给予回应。”

平台已处理所有提款请求 金管局:监管措施仍有效

同时,金管局也呼吁,若用户或投资者遇上问题,可主动向平台投诉。

谈及Chocolate Finance事件,金管局认为,从平台成功处理所有提款请求来看,现有的监管措施,在确保客户资产的安全方面,仍然有效。

尽管如此,金管局指出,上述事件为所有平台上了宝贵的一课:应向用户清楚解释产品与风险,包括哪些功能可能被撤销。“除了条款与细则,平台还应通过其他管道,向客户清晰传达服务内容。”

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