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定存总额跌7％ 减息步伐放慢但定存利率料再降
银行定期存款依然是人们青睐的投资工具。2024年下半年进入减息周期，新加坡的定存总额虽逐月递减，依旧稳定维持在每月4000亿元以上。2025年美国联邦储备局将放慢减息步伐，市场人士认为，本地定存利率将维持下降，但相较于其他低风险投资产品，定存依然有吸引力。
根据新加坡金融管理局网站的最新数据，截至今年10月，本地居民的定存总额为4240亿元，比前一个月增加0.87％。
在这之前，本地定存总额连续四个月减少，减幅介于0.2％至1.2％，变化不大。自2023年1月突破4000亿元以来，本地定存总额，一直维持在这个水平以上。
两年来定存总额最高峰为4566亿元
如果与去年12月的4194亿元相比，本地定存款增加了大约1.1％，但较两年来的最高峰4566亿元减少了7.1％。
为了抑制通货膨胀，美联储于2022年3月至2023年7月，加息11次、共525个基点。在这段期间，本地定存总额从2446亿元左右，不断增加至大约4405亿元，增幅达80％。
美联储的货币政策直接影响新加坡利率。在利率上升时，本地和外资银行都纷纷提出优惠的定存利率，吸引存款。
到了今年9月，美联储开始减息，四个月内共减100个基点。
定存利率从年初的4％滑落至3％以下
投资者教育平台Beansprout总裁黄杰伦接受《联合早报》采访时说：“由于美联储减息，所有银行已经下调定存利率。今年初，市场上最高的12个月定存利率有4％左右。接近年底时，已经滑落到3％以下。”
目前如果还有银行提供3％以上的定存优惠利率，都仅限三个月和六个月，而且最低存款额要10万元。
根据美联储于星期三（12月18日）公布的最新预测，2025年预计减息50个基点，比9月份预测的100个基点，大幅收窄。这意味着，美联储明年可能只减息两次，而非先前预期的四次。
担心特朗普政府明年初上任后带来的政策变化将造成通胀升温，影响美联储减息，部份投资者如今预测美联储2025年可能只减息一次。
黄杰伦说：“尽管美联储的减息步伐不明朗，利率还是会下降。在这样的情况下，新加坡来年的定存利率也会下降。希望把现金存放在安全之处的投资者来说，定存依然是一个有吸引力的选择，因为某些银行还是会提供高于国库券（T-bill）收益率的定存利率。”
如果要赚取更高的收益率，黄杰伦建议，投资者可以考虑企业债券、债券基金、房地产投资信托（REIT）或稳定派息的股票，但这些投资工具的风险比定存高。
财经专家：投资者应保留一定额度流动资金
MoneyOwl研究与规划组长黄锐洲受访时提醒，在进行回报率较高的投资时，会有额外风险，建议投资者为防不时之需，保留一定额度的流动资金。MoneyOwl是淡马锡信托基金会（Temasek Trust）旗下的财务顾问公司。
黄锐洲指出，由于美国通胀、美国政治和地缘政治风险的影响存在不确定性，很难准确预测利率的变化。本地投资者如果担心汇率风险，相较于外币定存，以新元计价的存款，能提供更好的风险保护。
黄锐洲另外指出，部份投资者被承诺提供较高收益率的现金管理户头（cash management account）吸引，这些户头大多投资货币市场基金，有的也投资短期债券基金。
黄锐洲说：“这些投资工具的风险虽然较低，但与传统存款不同，它们没有新加坡存款保险公司（SDIC）承保，因此存在一定的信用风险。天下没有免费的午餐，承诺更高回报，投资者也要承担更大的风险。”
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