Britain's prime minister race heats up -- Straits Times 2022-07-21

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Britain's prime minister race heats up

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News analysis

Britain's prime minister race heats up

Jonathan Eyal

Global Affairs Correspondent

21 July 2022

LONDON - The leading candidates seeking to become Britain's next prime minister are rushing to launch their national campaigns soon after winning the nomination of their ruling Conservative Party.

Former British finance minister Rishi Sunak and Foreign Secretary Elizabeth Truss emerged as the top candidates in a ballot of Conservative Members of Parliament.

They must now compete in a nationwide vote among an estimated 160,000 Conservative Party members, with the winner automatically becoming both party leader and Britain's next prime minister, announced on Sept 5.

Speaking to the media soon after MPs in London announced their verdict on Wednesday (July 20) evening, Mr Sunak, who hopes to become Britain's first-ever leader of Indian descent, said he was "humbled" by his party's nomination, which he claimed represented a "really strong result with a clear mandate from MPs".

Meanwhile, Ms Truss, who said she was "absolutely delighted" by her nomination, claimed to look forward to the hustings that lie ahead and to be ready to "hit the ground running and get things done", should she win the premiership, potentially becoming the third woman in her country's history to hold the post.

However, neither of the two candidates enjoys powerful support. And their confrontation over the coming month is sure to be fierce.

Mr Sunak has been the leading candidate among Conservative MPs right from the start of this race, so his selection for the final and decisive ballot of the party's membership is not a surprise.

Still, Mr Sunak secured the final support of only 137 MPs, just over one-third of the party's 357 lawmakers, a poor result in comparison with the scores of former prime minister Theresa May and current Prime Minister Boris Johnson, both of whom got the backing of half of their party's MPs when they were nominated.

For much of the race, Ms Truss trailed many other candidates. At one stage, she looked like she would be defeated for the nomination by Trade Minister Penny Mordaunt, who was the leading anti-Sunak candidate.

Ms Truss benefited from a last-minute surge in votes, as MPs who supported other candidates finally rallied to her call.

But followers of Ms Mordaunt, who ran a campaign emphasising her ability to win for the Conservatives seats held by the opposition Labour Party, were left bruised and determined to continue fighting: "We have lit a flame, and it's not going away," said a disappointed Penny Mordaunt supporter.

Ms Truss represents the hard-right wing of the ruling Conservatives. She has pledged to introduce £38 billion (S$63.34 billion) worth of tax cuts if she wins power by scrapping current plans to raise taxes to offset massive government spending rolled out during the pandemic.

She has promised to cancel planned corporation tax rises from April 2023. Ms Truss also threatened to take a hard line in Britain's relations with the European Union, which remain tense.

All these pledges are intended to attract the support of Conservative Party members, who are overwhelmingly anti-EU and firm believers in small government and low taxes.

As the man who introduced many of the tax rises, Mr Sunak is hardly in a position to promise their abolition.

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Instead, Mr Sunak has dismissed his opponent's promises as "something-for-nothing economics" and has pointed to the need to increase social spending.

Both candidates remain vulnerable.

Young, presentable, energetic and immaculately turned out, Mr Sunak is a far better public performer than his opponent.

But the financial affairs of his wife, who is an Indian citizen and until recently was registered in India for tax purposes, have dogged him for months.

And although few commentators mention this, it remains to be seen whether a Conservative Party membership that is unrepresentative of the nation at large by being overwhelmingly white and primarily concentrated in the southern, wealthier parts of the country is prepared to accept a prime minister of Indian origin.

Meanwhile, Ms Truss has her vulnerabilities. She started her political career as a member of the small Liberal Party before she switched to the Conservatives.

And despite her ferocious anti-EU stance, she initially argued for Britain to remain in the EU.

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Both episodes are likely to haunt her on the campaign trail.

Polls conducted earlier this week by YouGov, one of Britain's leading pollsters, indicate that if the vote were held today, Ms Truss would beat Mr Sunak by 54 to 35 per cent.

Mr Sunak is positioning himself as the only leader able to deliver another Conservative victory at the general elections that must take place before the end of 2024.

“Who is the best-placed person to beat the Labour Party at the next election?” he asked in his first hustings after his nomination. “I believe I am the only candidate who can do that.”

The campaign promises to be dirty.

Mr Dominic Cummings, the former influential political fixer who helped unseat Mr Johnson, has already lowered the tone by dismissing Ms Truss as a "box of snakes" and a "human hand grenade" because - he claims - "she blows up all she touches".

It's probably all downhill from here.