Wednesday, September 23, 2026

以力服人和以德服人

吴俊刚专栏

以力服人和以德服人

2026-09-23

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作为曾经的民主捍卫者的美国,由于一再试图以力服人,正不断自毁长城,丧失人心。历史证明,以力服人是不能长久的,所谓赢了面子却输了里子。丧失人心对一个强国而言是最致命的。
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  于9月16日在北京举行的第13届香山论坛上发言时,新加坡国防部长陈振声谈到战略耐心的课题。他认为各国必须通过战略耐心建立互信。战略耐心指的是,面对长期、复杂的战略问题,不急于求成,而是保持克制,等待更有利的时机,同时持续推进自己的长期目标。

  在陈振声看来,这是一种智慧。不受外部情况左右我们的行动,或是追逐短期的胜利而忘了长期的利益。因此,不必动辄展示自己的每一项能耐,也没必要抢占每一个利益,或是立即回应每一个挑衅。他随即引用《孟子》里的几句话:“以力服人者,非心服也;以德服人者,中心悦而诚服也。”

  这几句话出自《孟子·公孙丑章句上》,原文是 :“以力假仁者霸,霸必有大国,以德行仁者王,王不待大。汤以七十里,文王以百里。以力服人者,非心服也,力不赡也;以德服人者,中心悦而诚服也,如七十子之服孔子也……。”在《孟子》的语境中,也许指的更多是统治方式。以武力服人的往往是大国的霸主,反之,以德服人则不必有大国,孟子因此举出商汤和周文王为例,说明他们当初国家规模很小,却能通过德政使天下归心。这就是霸道和王道的差别。

  所谓人同此心,心同此理,把这几句话用在国际关系上也很恰当。当今世界有将近200个大中小主权国家,多数第三世界国家都是从殖民地脱胎而来的。强权瓜分和殖民世界的时代早已过去。但时至今日,大国或霸权以大欺小,以强凌弱的事例却屡见不鲜。已经成为“世纪对手”的中美两国,目前似乎正朝着这两个反方向前进。美国总统特朗普治下的美国崇尚以力服人,而中国领导人习近平则一直在倡导世界命运共同体,尝试以德服人。

  最近的世界新闻头条很可以凸显这样的反差。9月17日,特朗普接受美国新闻网站Axios访问时说:“我是要出手歼灭他们(指伊朗政权),还是不要?这是个重大决定。对我而言,任何事情都有可能发生。”这是武力恫吓,虽然打了六个月的仗还没能推翻伊朗政权。特朗普最得意的一次军事行动,应数今年1月3日突袭加拉加斯,活捉委内瑞拉总统马杜罗夫妻,之后又逐渐控制委内瑞拉的石油生产。所谓食髓知味,9月13日他访问爱尔兰期间也暗示,美国可能会留在伊朗并控制石油。这就是伊朗早前所说的委内瑞拉模式。

  9月18日,特朗普宣称,美国已同丹麦和格陵兰达成协议,美国将获得格陵兰岛安全的“永久控制权”,将在岛上显著扩大军事存在,敌对国家则永不可在岛上驻军和投资敏感领域。显然,丹麦已在特朗普的武力淫威下软化,无奈但又无力反抗。丹麦人相信不会因此对美国心悦诚服。

  除了枪炮,大国试图以力服人,也可以动用经济武器,特朗普单方面加征所有贸易伙伴的关税是典型例子。虽然仰赖美国市场的国家都不敢吭声,但大家心里服吗?除了中国,加拿大是少数敢不跪的例子。本来美加关系好端端的,但由于特朗普个人认为加拿大长期以来是在占美国的贸易便宜,因此要求重新谈判原有的包括墨西哥在内的美墨加协定,并单方面宣布对加拿大进口加征关税。没想到加国现任总理卡尼拒绝跪地求饶。8月下旬双方贸易谈判破裂后,美方扩大加征关税范围,对价值200亿美元的加拿大商品加征50%关税。加方随即对等回应,自9月8日起实施等额报复性关税,税率分15%、25%、50%三档,覆盖钢铝、乳制品、家电、农用设备等领域。加拿大人表现的就是两个字:不服。

  美国对邻近小国古巴的极限施压更是千古一例。从1959年卡斯特罗推翻亲美的巴蒂斯塔独裁政权起至今,美国对古巴实施各种各样的制裁,也包括试图武力侵占,但一直没有成功。历经一个强邻长达60余年的极限经济制裁和文攻武吓,古巴人虽然始终不肯屈服,经济却蒙受重创,人民过着经常断电断油的日子。这只不过是因为卡斯特罗选择共产主义。对这么一个已经残破不堪的小国,美国时至今日仍视之为安全威胁,必要置之死地而后已。9月17日,美国国务卿鲁比奥宣布,对古巴军事体系及镍矿资源开发相关企业和个人实施新一轮制裁后说:“共产古巴是一个腐败、失败的国家,而且持续对美国国家安全构成威胁……。”西谚有云:live and let live(自己活也让别人活),但美国显然没有让古巴活下去的意愿,因为它是“非我族类”。

  毫无疑问,作为曾经的民主捍卫者的美国,由于一再试图以力服人,正不断自毁长城,丧失人心。历史证明,以力服人是不能长久的,所谓赢了面子却输了里子。丧失人心对一个强国而言是最致命的。苏联的最终瓦解正是因为武力无法长久维持强权统治。中国历史上最突出的例子是秦始皇。尽管他销毁天下武器,仍避免不了人民揭竿而起,推倒他看似坚不可摧的政权。

  美国的盟友,特别是欧洲各国,虽然和中国也有贸易上的重大矛盾,因此正在热切议论中国版的《广场协议》,这毕竟是有谈判余地的,无须动刀动枪。对欧美而言,也许更值得关注的是中国的外交走向。就在特朗普忙着拆自己墙脚的时候,中国则在努力推销多边主义,合作共赢。习近平9月1日在上海合作组织峰会上,提出“发展优先、安全为要、以人为本、对话协商”等四项主张与三点建议,强调上合应在多边与单边、对话与对抗激烈博弈之际“主动引领历史航向”,推动世界多极化和全球治理改革。

  对照特朗普的盛气凌人,这样的话至少听起来很顺耳。以理服人,如果能身体力行,就能进一步以德服人。至少,时至今日,军事和经济同样强大的中国并未到处耀武扬威,试图以力服人。虽然中国海警船在南中国海和菲律宾船只最近不断发生摩擦,但和美军的穷兵黩武,无视国际规则,实不可同日而语。毕竟北京不同于华盛顿和马尼拉,没有选举压力,更具备上面所说的战略耐心。所以也不必像特朗普和小马可斯,必须短线操作,争取政治分数。如此长此以往,哪一方能得到更多天下人心,不待蓍龟已可知矣。

作者是前新闻工作者、前国会议员

吴俊刚

Tuesday (Sep 22, 2026) announced that the US government would rename artificial intelligence "super intelligence" in official communications.

US President Donald Trump on Tuesday (Sep 22) announced that the US government would rename artificial intelligence "super intelligence" in official communications.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/us-ai-trump-super-intelligence-global-control-6402846?cid=internal_sharetool_androidphone_23092026_cna

Tuesday, September 22, 2026

Tommy Koh: Singapore’s foreign policy based on realism, says its longest-serving diplomat. But Republic not just a passive observer says Tommy Koh, who retired from MFA in Aug 2026

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Singapore’s foreign policy based on realism, but it’s not just a passive observer: Tommy Koh

2026-09-20

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/politics/singapores-foreign-policy-based-on-realism-but-its-not-just-a-passive-observer-tommy-koh

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https://str.sg/gmH5

Singapore’s foreign policy based on realism, says its longest-serving diplomat

But Republic not just a passive observer, says Tommy Koh, who retired from MFA in Aug 2026

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Singapore’s foreign policy based on realism, but it’s not just a passive observer: Tommy Koh

2026-09-20

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/politics/singapores-foreign-policy-based-on-realism-but-its-not-just-a-passive-observer-tommy-koh
1 of 2 Tommy Koh said the Government must be able to convince Singaporeans that its foreign policy is correct and serves the national interest.ST PHOTOS: KUA CHEE SIONG
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Singapore’s foreign policy based on realism, says its longest-serving diplomat
But Republic not just a passive observer, says Tommy Koh, who retired from MFA in Aug

Reporter: Tham Yuen-C
Senior Political Correspondent
The Straits Times 


Just three years after Singapore gained independence, a young Tommy Koh learnt one of his most abiding lessons in international relations – might is right for powerful countries.

The law academic-turned-diplomat was barely a month into his posting as Singapore’s representative to the United Nations when the Soviet Union invaded Czechoslovakia.

Czechoslovakia was then aligned with the Soviet Union. But it was undergoing political and economic liberalisation, which Moscow was worried would lead to widespread rebellion in the Eastern bloc.

The invasion on Aug 20, 1968, took Czechoslovakia and the world by surprise.

“It was a shocking event that this superpower would send in its army to invade a smaller country and overthrow its government,” Koh said, recounting the episode in an interview with The Straits Times on Sept 15.

At the United Nations, he saw how efforts in the UN Security Council to pass a resolution condemning the attacks were repeatedly blocked by the Soviet Union and eventually quashed. 

“You know, it makes you sit back and say, ‘Is there a role for law in a world governed by force and by power?’” Koh said.

Ultimately, it was a reality check for him.

“It made me aware that the world is not governed by law, but that powerful countries will use their power to assert their will, and that’s the reality,” he said.

But while such use of force might produce results in the short term, it rarely prevails in the long term, said Koh, 88, Singapore’s longest-serving diplomat who retired at the end of August after 55 years in the foreign service.

History has shown the limits of power, he added, citing the US’ loss in the Vietnam War that lasted from 1954 to 1975, and the Soviet Union’s withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989 after a decade-long invasion. 

The Czechoslovakia invasion, coming early on in Koh’s career, solidified his resolve to defend international law and the rule of law.

This has become especially important in the current climate, as major global powers increasingly flout multilateral rules through the use of force, and undermine key international institutions.

For Singapore, it is about survival, as international law provides the legal framework for a small country to defend its sovereignty against arbitrary action by bigger countries.

“Of course, they will continue to do things like kidnapping (former president Nicolas) Maduro from Venezuela. I suppose when you are very powerful, you are tempted to use your force,” he said.

“(But) I’m clear in my mind. I don’t want to build a world governed by force. I want to build a different world... governed by the rule of law. I want to build a world in which countries cooperate with each other. I want to build a world in which we will protect the global commons.”

Koh, a principal architect behind major international agreements like the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and founding chairman of the Centre for International Law, added that the world must not accept the flouting of international law by powerful countries as reality.

“Sure, you will do this, but I’m not accepting it. I’m telling you what you’ve done is wrong. I hold you to account,” he said.

Countries have agency. This is true even for a small one like Singapore, which hews to the principle of taking the world as it is, he said.

As examples of how Singapore has pushed back, Koh pointed to the Republic speaking out in August against Israel’s plans to build more residential settlements in the West Bank, which are illegal under international law.

It was important for Singapore to call out the illegal settlements and settler violence against Palestinians, he added.

“Israel is militarily very powerful... but it doesn’t mean that Israel can do whatever it wants. And it doesn’t mean that because we are a good friend of Israel, we must either support Israel, no matter what it does, or keep silent,” he said.

In the past, Singapore had condemned Vietnam’s invasion and occupation of Cambodia in 1978 and led a concerted effort to table an annual resolution at the UN General Assembly to call for the withdrawal of the troops over 10 years.

Singapore had also condemned the Soviet Union’s invasion and occupation of Afghanistan in 1979 and the United States’ invasion of Grenada in 1983.

While Singapore’s foreign policy is based on realism, it does not mean that it is just a passive observer of reality, he said.

“Accepting the world as it is doesn’t mean that we have no agency... We will push back, and we will have the courage to hold the big countries to account,” said Koh, who had delivered Singapore’s statement about Grenada at the UN all those years ago.

As a diplomat, Koh said he has held the two principles in balance – recognising the reality of the world, while working hard to defend Singapore’s sovereign rights and principles so as to ensure its agency.

To this end, one of Singapore’s most important contributions to international relations is the Forum of Small States, said Koh.

In 1992, Singapore co-founded the informal grouping of small states in New York, with an initial membership of 16 countries. Today, it comprises 108 countries which meet regularly to discuss issues of concern to small states.

Before this, small countries had no platform of their own and were disadvantaged in a world that favours the big over the small and the strong over the weak, said Koh.

By bringing the countries together, the forum has allowed them to amplify their voice and increase their leverage, he added.

Things could well have worked out differently for Singapore in 1991.

When the Cold War ended with the formal dissolution of the Soviet Union, and the world was left with one superpower in the US, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs held a major brainstorming exercise.

The question Singapore was grappling with then was whether it should become an ally of the remaining one superpower or stay independent.

Recounting the brainstorming session, Koh said there were good arguments for both options, but the eventual consensus was for Singapore to be close to the US but not aligned with it.

Allies are obligated to defend each other, he explained, and this can constrain Singapore’s ability to speak out according to its own principles.

“We wanted to maintain our autonomy and our room for manoeuvre,” he said.

“Looking back on 1991, I think we made the right choice.”

As the global order moves towards more multipolarity, this will be important for Singapore, he said.

Koh believes that China, now a prospective superpower, will become a complete superpower and a rival to the US.

But the two countries will not be the only poles. There will also be other spheres of influence, such as the European Union, Tokyo and New Delhi, as well as the BRICS developing countries, among others. 

With autonomy, Singapore can better uphold its principles and act in its own interests even as the world gets more complicated, he added.

But Singapore’s external strength and sovereignty also depend on domestic unity.

Koh said the Government must be able to convince Singaporeans that its foreign policy is correct and serves the national interest.

For example, in the contest for influence between the US and China, Singapore has not chosen to take sides. Yet, there may be some Singaporeans who believe Singapore should support China.
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https://youtu.be/u8QtQHDktFk?is=2OWOZ8aLffmW4_Zk
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In the same way, some Singaporeans may feel that Singapore should take a stronger position against Israel in the Gaza war that broke out in 2023.

“So it is the job of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the whole of government to convince our own people that our policy is correct, that at the end of the day, we mustn’t allow our emotions to override our rationality,” he said.

Besides building consensus at home, Singapore has also continued to build bridges abroad, such as by continuing to champion multilateral organisations and cooperation.

The majority of the 193 member states of the UN still believe in the importance of the international organisation, said Koh.

While countries have violated the UN Charter and damaged the system – the Russians by invading Ukraine, the US by waging a war against Iran without just cause, and Israel by its excessive actions in Gaza – the treaty is still “standing tall”.

“They don’t represent the world,” said Koh of these countries. “It is true that a few member states have become disenchanted. They are important, but they are a minority. The rest of us will carry on without them.”

Koh added that the US is doing itself harm by withdrawing from so many multilateral platforms, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Paris Agreement and the World Health Organization.

“My message to my American friends is: You are important, but you’re not indispensable, and the rest of us will carry on without you. The danger is that we will have a world without America. Not good for the world, and not good for America,” he said.

Closer to home, there is also ASEAN, which is another platform Koh has championed.

When the grouping was founded in 1967, South-east Asia was poor and unstable, with insurgencies in many of the countries.

Since then, the region has become stable and prosperous and has been transformed, he added.

“We have inculcated in us a culture of consulting each other, seeking to accommodate each other’s view, and we have an ability to, most of the time, find a consensus,” said Koh, noting that there is no such successful regional organisation for North-east Asia or South Asia.

“So we (ASEAN) are not perfect. But when I look at ourselves and look at other regions of the world, I’m just so glad that we (Singapore) are located here.”

He added that ASEAN is a force for peace, which has intervened when disputes arise between its members. 

Most recently, when fighting erupted between Cambodia and Thailand on their border in 2025, ASEAN had stepped in to try to help defuse the tension.

The two countries also have a dispute at sea, and are engaged in conciliation talks under UNCLOS.

Even then, ASEAN has come under criticism in recent years, as the 11-member regional grouping deals with a deadlock caused by Myanmar’s military coup in 2021 and ongoing civil war.

An ASEAN-backed peace plan has failed to end the war, leading some critics to cast doubt about the grouping’s effectiveness.

Asked about this, Koh said the problem in Myanmar is not interstate, but intrastate, and the result of a military coup staged by the army against Myanmar’s elected government.

“We can’t solve the problem. The Myanmar people must solve their own problem. All we can do is encourage them,” he said.

But he admitted that ASEAN is divided on whether or not to recognise Myanmar junta chief-turned-president Min Aung Hlaing, who led the military coup and remains barred from the official ASEAN leaders’ summits.

Within ASEAN, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos have hosted him on bilateral and official visits, which critics warn runs the risk of providing legitimacy to his military-run government.

Myanmar will be on the agenda as Singapore takes over the ASEAN chairmanship in 2027, and unless the military is willing to have a fundamental rethink of the use of force, ASEAN is likely to be at an impasse, he said.

Still, Koh remains a supporter and believer of ASEAN’s consensus model, which is based on consultation and unanimity, rather than majority voting. 

He said there was only one occasion in ASEAN’s history – the grouping marks its 60th year in 2027 – that it had failed to adopt a joint communique.

That happened when Cambodia, on behalf of China, decided to block the adoption of a paragraph on the South China Sea in the official document released after the annual ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting that outlines the grouping’s consensus.

“But I think Cambodia learnt the lesson that it shouldn’t act as a proxy of China, and after that, we’ve never had problem adopting a joint communique. So consensus works,” he said.

Koh, who is known for his personal approach to foreign relations and often refers to his counterparts as friends, added: “We shouldn’t take decisions by vote because it will destroy the family.”

This non-confrontational approach is also favoured by Koh in the civic realm at home.

Widely seen as one of the Singapore Government’s foremost “loving critics” – a term he coined in asking the Government not to reflexively dismiss those with dissenting views – he said being confrontational may work in other countries but not Singapore.

“Being adversarial is not our style. Confrontation is not a technique that works in Singapore. It’s better to be persuasive,” he said.

He cites AWARE and Nature Society Singapore, of which he is a patron, as non-governmental organisations that have been effective and successful in championing their cause by harnessing facts, rational arguments and persuasion.

On the health of Singapore’s civic space, he said that while Singapore has many strengths, one of its weaknesses is the “relatively low tolerance for people with different views or dissenting views”.

While the space for intellectuals and artists have expanded over the past 61 years, Singapore could do better, he added.

“If you look at the trajectory, I think we are growing towards greater tolerance, more acceptance... The trajectory is in the right direction.”

yuenc@sph.com.sg

Hypocrisy

By Dola app

2026-09-22

Here are clear, natural sentences with hypocrisy — simple → advanced, plus meaning & usage 💡
 
 
 
📖 Meaning
 
hypocrisy /hɪˈpɒkrəsi/ (noun)
= pretending to have virtues, morals, or beliefs you don’t actually have; saying one thing but doing the opposite → 虚伪;伪善
 
 
 
✅ Simple & Everyday
 
1. It’s pure hypocrisy to tell others not to smoke when you smoke yourself.
2. I can’t stand the hypocrisy of people who judge everyone but themselves.
3. She saw the hypocrisy in his words and stayed silent.
4. Don’t let their hypocrisy upset you.
 
📝 Intermediate
 
1. He condemned greed, but his own wealth exposed his hypocrisy.
2. Many people see the politician’s promises as nothing but hypocrisy.
3. The hypocrisy of his actions became obvious to everyone.
4. We must call out hypocrisy wherever we see it.
 
🎓 Advanced / Formal
 
1. The speech was widely criticized for its moral hypocrisy.
2. There is a striking hypocrisy between his public statements and private behaviour.
3. Such hypocrisy erodes trust in leaders and institutions.
4. She pointed out the hypocrisy in demanding equality while treating others unfairly.
 
🗣️ Short & Common Phrases
 
- an act of hypocrisy
- a sign of hypocrisy
- full of hypocrisy
- sheer hypocrisy = completely hypocritical
 
 
 
💡 Quick Tip
 
Hypocrisy = the noun (the quality/act)
Hypocrite = the person who does it
Hypocritical = the adjective (describing someone/something)
 
Example:
 
- His hypocrisy annoys me. (noun)
- He is such a hypocrite. (person)
- That’s a hypocritical thing to say. (adjective)
 
Would you like practice sentences or more examples? 😊

Monday, September 21, 2026

SIA投资印度航空亏损陷舆论漩涡-新航面对燃油上涨和同业竞争挑战

投资印度航空亏损陷舆论漩涡
新航面对燃油上涨和同业竞争挑战


李涛 报道

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印度航空据报寻求股东注资,让持有25.1%股权的新航成为市场关注焦点。撇开印航带来的亏损和投资风险,新航本身的业务表现如何?面对燃油成本压力和区域同业日益激烈的竞争,公司是否仍具备过去的优势?
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  过去数周,新加坡企业界最热议的新闻对象,莫过于新加坡航空(Singapore Airlines)。由于投资印度航空(Air India)的损失,公司卷入舆论漩涡中,面对上至国会议员、下至普罗大众的一连串提问。

  受访分析师指出,撇开印航投资问题,新航与一众航空公司一样,面临燃油成本上涨和中东冲突持续的不确定性带来的挑战;乘客是否愿意继续支付高昂的票价,也是可能的风险。

  自公司入股印航后,新航的财报中多次出现来自印航的亏损;而在最新一期截至6月底的2026/27财年第一季业绩中,新航说来自印航的亏损同比增加4200万元。

第一季印航料造成
新航1.7亿元亏损

  印航本身和它旗下的印度快运航空,在截至今年3月底的财年合计亏损23亿3000万美元(约30亿新元)。这个数字较上财年增加一倍以上,是有记录以来最高的年度亏损。

  新航没有在最新一期的业绩中明确提出印航对它造成的亏损规模。大华继显(UOB Kay Hian)估算,印航在第一季对新航造成的净亏损在1亿7000万元至1亿7500万元之间,较这家证券行原本的预期来得低。

  不过,相关数字受到一笔可观的一次过会计收益提振。这笔收益源于印度航空2026财年管理账目与经审计财务数据之间的调整。新航没有披露这笔会计收益的具体数额。

  大华继显指出,这笔数额应为1亿5000万元。若剔除这笔收益,印航对新航业绩造成的拖累实际上或更严重。

  须要注意的是,印航本身亏损对新航造成的影响是在账面上的。有关亏损将逐步降低这项投资的账面价值,新航管理层在剩余价值全部归零后,将不再确认这项亏损。

企业治理专家:
新航未披露足够细节

  企业治理专家、新加坡国立大学商学院教授麦润田接受《联合早报》访问时指出,新航或许并没有向投资者提供足够的资料和披露。

  他认为,尽管这其中涉及商业敏感信息和保密条款,但新航董事会仍可向股东进一步说明投资印航决策,包括进行了何种风险评估、曾征询的专业意见,以及负责审核的董事部委员会及成员。

  除账面亏损外,引发近期争议的,是新航为印航进行的多次资金填补。

  路透社8月25日引述两名消息人士报道说,印航再度“伸手拿钱”,希望两大股东塔塔(Tata Sons)和新航注资15亿美元(约19亿新元);印度媒体以及彭博社则在9月3日报道说,两大股东预计将给出总值约13亿4300万新元的财政援助。

  消息人士说,这笔资金的发放取决于印航是否达到某些业绩要求;发放比率也预料与持股比率相称。由于新航持有印航25.1%的股份,以此计算的出资额,预计为3亿3600万元左右。

  这并非新航第一次向印航出资。新航收购印航股权时,已注入3亿2210万元。其后新航根据协议规定多次追加注资。

  印航的大股东塔塔近期也传出集团内斗的事件。虽然塔塔董事长兼印航董事长陈哲(Natarajan Chandrasekaran)早前已经表明不会连任,但彭博社报道,塔塔已决定把他的任期延长五年。这一决定则遭到控股股东塔塔信托(Tata Trusts)的公开反对。

专家:是否再出资成罗生门
新航应交代义务与退出机制

  作为印航的少数股东,麦润田认为新航应该说明公司拥有的保护措施和承担的义务。

  这包括新航能否拒绝进一步注资,这样做是否令它的股权被稀释,进而丧失董事部的席位;此外,新航也应澄清,有关投资是否存在退出条款。

  新航事件被带上国会后,公司在9月8日发声明澄清,公司在印度的投资是通过内部资源进行,未来也将如此;也有市场消息指出,新航预计在批准注资前,寻求对印航更大的影响力以及更强的治理权。

  截至目前,新航仍未对外说明是否已收到出资要求,也未透露会否按持股比例注资。

  麦润田说:“从企业治理角度看,还有一个重要问题。新航的董事部是否具备足够的能力,以理解航空业、印度市场,以及当地航空业的复杂性?他们应当对此做出说明。”

高票价或遇阻力
对冲难永久抵御油价上扬

  除了印航争议外,新航也面对燃油成本上升的问题。管理层此前已透露,机票起价并不能完全抵消燃油价格上涨的影响。

  星展集团分析师岑映阳告诉《联合早报》,新航的最大风险在于乘客对更高票价的抵触情绪会否日益增强。

  他指出,公司虽然一直在上调票价以贴补燃油成本,但如果宏观经济环境恶化或消费者信心减弱,旅客可能会选择更便宜的替代方案、降低舱位等级或减少非必要出行。

  不过,华侨银行分析师林康丽指出,新航的对冲(hedging,又译套期保值)计划比大多数的区域同行更有效,公司的韧性因而优于其他航空公司。

  对冲是航空公司管理燃油价格波动风险的一种方式。由于燃油通常是航空公司的主要营运成本,它们可通过期货、期权等金融工具,预先锁定部分未来燃油成本或限制价格上涨带来的影响。

  新航去年11月曾透露,公司燃油对冲期限最长可达五年。截至去年12月底的季度,49%的燃油需求已完成对冲;截至今年3月底的季度,对冲比率则为47%。

  但岑映阳指出,现有的对冲安排虽能带来实际成本节约,并为调整票价争取时间,却无法让航空公司永久免受高成本环境的影响。

  在最新一期的报告中,大华继显把新航的评级调低至卖出。分析指出,燃油价格将在未来几季给新航的盈利带来不小的压力。

新航发挥直航优势
升级客舱力保高端客群

  林康丽指出,新航的另一大优势是可灵活增加运力,在欧洲与亚洲航线上争取更多市场份额。这是因为即使那些中东国家的航空公司恢复运力,乘客在短期内仍可能偏好新航的直达航班。

  新航近期也宣布,将于11月向它的高端常旅客展示全新升级的头等舱和商务舱服务。公司也计划升级机上的餐饮服务,并推出全新的娱乐系统。

  这个计划是耗资11亿元、为期多年的41架空客A350飞机客舱升级的一部分,并已因供应链问题有所展延。由于国泰和德国汉莎航空(Lufthansa)此前都纷纷推出升级后的机舱服务,新航此举可被视为跟上同业并保持它在高端和商务客户群体中竞争力的举动。

  岑映阳指出,高端客户对新航至关重要。“我们认为,新航是亚太区内高端业务比率最高的航空公司之一。因此,维持这市场的需求与票价水平,对公司的盈利能力尤为关键。”

  他也认为,尽管竞争对手也升级客舱,但新航依然占据有利地位。“它的优势源于产品、服务与航线网络的综合实力,非仅仅依赖于某一项特定的座椅功能。”

  随着一些不理性的讨论逐渐降温,市场对新航的关注点预计将回到更实际的问题。

  尽管社会舆论仍不乏要求新航退出印航的声音,但目前看来公司不大可能一走了之。这项投资不仅涉及长期经济利益,也牵涉新印两国在航空运输、飞机维修等领域日益密切的合作关系。

  印航的转型和潜在增长要转化为新航的回报,仍须一段相当长的时间。在这期间,投资者预计将继续关注新航管理层如何控制这项投资的风险,并在承受短期“颠簸”的同时,维持自身财务实力和核心业务的竞争力。

李涛 报道

Sunday, September 20, 2026

凡人诀歌词

凡人诀
====
歌词

斜阳染红了边际
凡人一去无踪影
遥遥归途三万里
匆匆一天又过去
昨日的一声叹息
今夜的一片狼藉
如此往复三万里
匆匆一年又过去
一句忠言听不进
一场大梦叫不醒
一两黄金放不下
一地鸡毛拿不起
一口三舌讲不清
一意孤行道不明
一出好戏琢不透
你我皆是凡人躯
一朝爱恨来又去
一时贪欲拾又弃
一念善恶灭又生
一世悲欢落又起
一声叫天天不应
两声叫地地不灵
三声不如唤自己
凡人生活在继续

AI and Radiologists

AI and Radiologists

(Translated by Doubao)
 
By Du Ping (杜平)
Professor, Communication University of China, Nanjing
 
September 18, 2026
Toutiao (A ByteDance company)

 
I was chatting with a doctor‑friend, and he put forward a rather surprising viewpoint.
 
Getting an X‑ray at the hospital feels straightforward. My doctor‑friend said that while the scanning itself is quick work done by machines, radiologists behind the scenes perform an enormous amount of work interpreting those scans.
 
He also shared a striking observation: hospitals worldwide face a severe shortage of physicians who read medical images. Statistics project that the global shortfall of radiologists will exceed 19,000 by 2036.
 
An abdominal CT scan consists of hundreds of slices. Physicians must go through each one, taking an average of 20 minutes to finish a single report. Around 300 million such scans are performed across the globe every year, with abdominal scans accounting for one‑quarter of that total.
 
How serious is this challenge? Last March, Nature published a research paper specifically exploring how AI could ease the manpower shortage in radiology. Chinese tech media ran a bold headline declaring, “The global shortage of human radiologists is solved.”
 
Yet insiders know it is never that simple. Everyone has considered using AI to fill staffing gaps, yet existing medical‑imaging AI acts as a specialist: each model is trained for one particular condition. An AI designed to detect lung nodules cannot assess liver conditions. Building such an AI also requires two to three years of manual data annotation. In contrast, a radiologist reviews multiple organs end‑to‑end for every report. For AI to become a genuine assistant to doctors, it must possess that same capability.
 
This long‑standing global challenge has now been addressed by a Chinese research team. On September 18, research outcomes from Alibaba DAMO Academy, in collaboration with the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University and other institutions, were published in Science. This achievement earned publication in this top‑tier international journal largely due to its outstanding performance.
 
Named DAMO RADAR, this general‑purpose medical‑imaging AI model covers 18 organs on abdominal CT scans and identifies 146 diseases. It achieved an AUC score of 0.913 across nearly 40,000 real‑world examinations, hitting expert‑level radiology performance for the first time. In real‑world practice, deploying this medical‑imaging AI not only cuts down working time but also enables junior physicians to deliver performance comparable to senior specialists.
 
Just how acute is the radiologist shortage? Take the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University as an example. Its radiology department has over 300 staff yet receives 8,000‑9,000 patients daily, with nearly 4,500 CT scans. The department chair, with more than thirty years of experience in medical imaging, admits that mental alertness declines by afternoon. That is precisely where AI can stand guard. It works regardless of time of day, delivering equally thorough analysis at 3 p.m. as at 3 a.m.
 
While Nature was still debating whether AI could plug workforce shortfalls, China has delivered a general‑purpose model attaining expert‑level performance, with both model and code fully open‑sourced. This breakthrough sets the tone for the next phase of medical‑AI development: competition no longer focuses on sheer numbers of tools, but on solving real‑world clinical problems.
 
As my doctor‑friend put it, China’s medical standards have advanced faster than many overseas counterparts in recent years. With the aid of large‑language AI models, we can expect healthcare for Chinese people to grow more accessible, and treatment outcomes to keep improving in the near future.